2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Class

My post, and I think the idea behind the graphic’s creation, was to show that Rolen isn’t a borderline candidate as well as Mauer by showing who else is in their group.

 

Here's the list of non-Hall of Famers most similar to Hall of Famers (per Baseball-Reference's top 10) who played from 1978 onward, my first year of following baseball. Pre-'78 comps to post-'78 HOFers are included, but not active players because ...



Check your nostalgia and pre-conceived notions at the door and make your cases dorks:

Johnny Damon (9)
Carlos Beltran (8)
Gary Sheffield (8) - Oh fuck off dickhead, nothing to see here, move on to the next one. (Fingers in ears, singing), "Come see what's Brewing, come see what the good times are. Come see what the Brewers are doing, come on and cheer a superstar. Be a believer in Brewer fever!" I CAN'T HEAR YOU AND YOUR INCONVENIENT FACTS!
Tommy John (7)
Lou Whitaker (7)
Rafael Palmeiro (6)
Carlos Delgado (6)
Miguel Tejada (6)
Dave Parker (6)
Manny Ramirez (5)
Jeff Reardon (5)
Roger Clemens (5)
Adrian Beltre (5)
Paul Konerko (4)
Jason Giambi (4)
Jimmy Rollins (4)
Rusty Staub (4)
Luis Gonzalez (4)
Torii Hunter (4)
John Franco (4)
Andres Galarraga (4)
Sammy Sosa (4)
Ichiro Suzuki (4)
Matt Holliday (3)
Aramis Ramirez (3)
Ellis Burks (3)
Jamie Moyer (3) - WTF?
Dwight Evans (3)
Andy Pettitte (3)
C.C. Sabathia (3)
Curt Schilling (3)
Tim Hudson (3)
Francisco Rodriguez (3)
Joe Nathan (3)
Roberto Hernandez (3)
Doug Jones (3)
Luis Tiant (3)
Michael Young (3)
Ray Durham (3)
Jimmy Ryan (3)
Julio Franco (3)
Jorge Posada (3)
Steve Finley (3)
Vada Pinson (3)
Paul O'Neill (2)
Ken Boyer (2)
Moises Alou (2)
Adam Wainwright (2)
Magglio Ordonez (2)
Bartolo Colon (2)
Billy Wagner (2)
Todd Helton (2)
Dennis Martinez (2)
Edgar Renteria (2)
Jay Bell (2)
Kenny Lofton (2)
Willie Davis (2)
Jeff Kent (2)
Lance Parrish (2)
Kevin Brown (2)
Orel Hershiser (2)
Bob Welch (2)
Jim Perry (2)
Billy Pierce (2)
Tony Mullane (2)
Lindy McDaniel (2)
Stu Miller (2)
Gene Garber (2)
Kent Tekulve (2)
Sparky Lyle (2)
Mike Marshall (RP) (2)
Jose Canseco (2)
Shawn Green
Bobby Bonilla
Reggie Smith
Fred Lynn
Frank Tanana
Jim Edmonds
Lance Berkman
Ryan Braun
Dwight Gooden
Jon Lester
Ron Guidry
Jimmy Key
Roy Oswalt
Bret Saberhagen
Will Clark
John Olerud
Bob Johnson
Bernie Williams
Adrian Gonzalez
David Wells
Todd Jones
Chuck Finley
Tony Fernandez
B.J. Surhoff
Jose Cruz
Juan Gonzalez
Bob Caruthers
Carlos Lee
Tug McGraw
Roy Face
Tom Henke
Jeff Montgomery
Robb Nen
John Wetteland
Todd Worrell
Dave Smith
Jason Isringhausen
Ian Kinsler
Chase Utley
Ron Reed
Tom Gordon
Ron Kline
Firpo Marberry
Jose Mesa
Gary Bell
Al Oliver
Ron Cey
Brian McCann
Bert Campaneris
Dave Concepcion
Tommy Corcoran
Omar Vizquel
Willie Randolph
Larry Bowa
Cecil Cooper - fuck yeah!
Carl Furillo
Cedar Cedeno
Felipe Alou
Cy Williams
Gary Gaetti
Bill Dahlen
Matt Williams
Milt Pappas
Dale Murphy
Don Mattingly

For the record? Barry Bonds' comps are: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Ken Griffey Jr., Mel Ott, Rafael Palmeiro and Ted Williams. Bonds did not appear as one of Griffey Jr.'s comps, so he is not on the list, which means he's unique on a grand scale and undoubtedly deserving of induction.

 

Going to get in via writers

Carlos Beltran (8)

Adrian Beltre (5)

Ichiro Suzuki (4)

C.C. Sabathia (3)

Billy Wagner (2)

Todd Helton (2)


Going to get in via committee

Gary Sheffield

Tommy John (7)

Lou Whitaker (7)

Dave Parker (6)

Dwight Evans (3)

Curt Schilling (3)

Jeff Kent (2)

Francisco Rodriguez (3)

Luis Tiant (3)

Ken Boyer (2)

Billy Pierce (2)

Tony Mullane (2)

Bill Dahlen

Dale Murphy

Don Mattingly


Probably going to get in via committee

Johnny Damon (9)

Jimmy Rollins (4)

Torii Hunter (4)

Andy Pettitte (3)

Tim Hudson (3)

Jorge Posada (3)

Vada Pinson (3)

Kenny Lofton (2)

Frank Tanana

Bob Johnson

Bob Caruthers

Chase Utley

Gary Bell

Al Oliver

Dave Concepcion

Omar Vizquel


Would be in if not for steroids

Rafael Palmeiro (6)

Manny Ramirez (5)

Roger Clemens (5)

Sammy Sosa (4)

 

It's worth noting Johnny Damon's closest comps, per Baseball-Reference, are Vada Pinson (could get in someday) and Steve Finley (probably never getting in). I remember some chatter after Damon was released in 2012 that he was pretty desperate to latch on with one more team because he knew he had to make a compiler's case for the Hall, and he didn't have enough hits yet - he finished with 2769. He also wasn't liked in Kansas City after he left and, as I recall, wasn't liked in Boston after he defected to the Yankees.

 

Damon is a weird case in that he was good for about 15 years, with an OPS+ between 88 and 118 that whole time. Usually, a guy who's that good for that long will have one year where he smacks 30+ HR instead of 20, and elevates himself into the MVP discussion, but it never happened for Damon. Instead, he was a clearly valuable and rosterable player for a very, very long period of time, which is rarer than people think. It's probably why his similarity to most of that list of HoF is around .850 - he's like 15 percent "off" from being a slam dunk All-Star most of his career. As is, he only made the All-Star teams twice.

 

Damon was definitely desperate to get to 3,000 hits.

He's an interesting intangible case. Were there five baseball players more famous than Damon in 2004? He also helped teams win, and win immediately, and win bigly. The '01 A's won 102 games in his lone year and then of course he helped end the drought in Boston and won a World Series with the Yankees (a Series highlighted by his double steal). Having seen so much of his popgun arm over the second half of his career, I also didn't realize he had such a high WAR. He definitely suffered from when he reached the ballot...eight HOFers elected by the writers, plus McGriff in his penultimate year on the BBWAA ballot, plus all the steroid guys and Schilling. If he's on the ballot for the first time this year, he's probably well above 10% and would have a longshot-ish path to induction.

Alas, he's sort of finished going off the reservation in retirement, growing his hair back out (even though there's not much left on top--you're not Michael Bolton, dude), getting busted for hardcore DUI and parading around with his reality TV wife. Not sure that's going to help him emerge even as a candidate to be placed on such small ballots.

 

I think the most surprising name on the list, to me, was Miguel Tejada's repeated inclusion. I suppose it shouldn't be, he hit for power and average, but a lot of his comps were the HOF catchers, which is weird to me.

Also, Jeff Kent being a little bitch is right on-brand. He was good. He is far from lock HOF good.

The least surprising thing on the list was Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly having one comp each. Both great in their prime, but neither of their primes lasted very long.

Nostalgia for the 80s is cool, but it colors objectivity. Dave Parker is probably the only everyday player left from my youth I'd advocate for*, and even I can see the case against him. He fell off badly (coke is a helluva drug) in the early 80s before recreating himself as a slugger with the Reds, but the Reds Dave Parker and peak Pirates multi-tool Dave Parker are totally different players. It's a weird resume.

Edit: Also, Lou Whitaker, who was and remains criminally underrated. He was better, year-to-year, than Alan Trammell ever was (Trammell had higher peaks and most remember peaks over year-to-year consistency), who is very borderline HOF in my opinion.

Fun fact: The only 1980s World Series champs that had more HOFers than the team they beat were the 1980 Phillies, 1989 A's, and bizarrely, the 1987 Twins, thought to be one of the worst all-time WS champs. Neither Dodgers team had a HOFer.

* BESIDES CECIL COOPER! HE'S GOT ONE HOF COMP! SUCK ON ALL OF IT, HATERS!

 

There are 23 shortstops in the HOF.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml

By the Baseball-Reference JAWS list (lifetime WAR) Trammell ranks 10th (all above him are In except for ARod -- who probably should classify as a 3B) and above 14 HOFers, so he isn't really "borderline."

Whitaker's placement among second basemen is similar -- right near the middle of previously inducted HOFers.

 

There are some names on that list which I'd never consider Hall material, but I'm about over those debates. Somebody is going to find stats that fit their argument, I'll find stats that fit mine, and we'll never reach agreement.

Anyway, I'm a strong proponent of an exclusive sort of HofF, which disqualifies more players simply out of hand. OK ... Gary Bell will never speak "Hall of Fame" to me. That's one.

If you turned on Curt and Tony on Saturday afternoon and Gary Bell was one of the starters, you were probably watching roller derby within minutes.

 

Problem is? Shortstop is a bizarro position in that some are in exclusively for glove work and some are in because they hit historically better than a historically weak-hitting position. There's probably no other position that has such wide extremes between the two.

It doesn't surprise me that Trammell falls in the middle because while he could hit for a little bit of power (he only topped 20 HR twice, and one of them was in 1987, when HRs were cheap) and he had a very good, though not historically great, glove, he's a tweener. Good enough to make the conversation, but probably not the top 5 best glove or top 5 best power-hitting SS either.

I made my first Comerica Park visit this summer. It shocked me how little they paid tribute to Whitaker. They have a fucking Tom Brookens exhibit in their tribute to each of their decades for crissakes.

 

12 of the 23 shortstops were Veterans Committee picks.

The writers put in Aparicio, Appling, Banks, Boudreau, Cronin, Jeter, Larkin, Maranville, Ripken, Ozzie, Wagner, Yount

 

Well, if you're middle-of-the-pack in a field of HOF players, I'd say that indicates you're pretty good.