Gambling Thread

I think this is a sign you should start attending some meetings.
Video at the link. It's a bit gross.

https://www.outkick.com/woman-pees-...eaving-her-slot-machine-for-a-bathroom-break/

 

I probably shouldn't have posted here about my miracle anti-bad beat, b/c it's been nothing but shit since then. Went with Angels-A's o7.5 and Teoscar Hernandez finally getting a hit today. Hernandez singled in his last at-bat but the Angels and A's stayed stuck on six runs after back-to-back three-spots for the Angels in the fourth and fifth. Carlos Estevez wriggled out of a first-and-third, two-out jam to finish up the 6-0 win. Bros the pain.

 

Per VSIN, MLB overs went 13-1-1 on Monday. I recommended to bet the overs early with the new rules. We’re now on the 4th/5th starters for each team. Keep an eye out for this every 4-5 days.

 

Weird, considering scoring is pretty much on pace with last year.

Fun Dinger Tuesdays promo from FanDuel. Bet $25 on a guy to hit a HR. You get a $5 bonus bet for every homer hit in the game your guy plays in. I'm thinking a good number of HRs in the Yanks and Phils game today ...

 

Buddy of mine keeps trying to convince me to join that. (He has Judge tonight) No thanks. For $25 I can lose like five different bets!

 

Some stratospheric O/Us at the moment. Cubs-Reds (Wesneski-Cessa), Rays-Nats (Fleming-Kuhl) & Pirates-Red Sox (Contreras-Pivetta) are at 9 and Blue Jays-Royals (Kikuchi-Bubic), Braves-Cards (Dodd-Matz) are at 10. Even Mets-Brewers (Scherzer-Miley) is at 8.

 

The smarties are on the Pirates/Red Sox under.

 

That promo was an ATM in 2021 for me. I’d bet every game on the board on whomever had the best value on their odds and then bet the “no” over on a parlay at DK on 3-4 of the players I had the “yes” at FanDuel.

 

How did you decide who had the best value? I took Darick Hall today. I looked at numberfire DFS stats for the day. He is 17th most likely to hit a HR today according to them (well, tied for 14th), but has +440 odds, fifth-highest of anyone else in the top 17. Plus he's up against the pitcher third-most likely to give up a HR today, according to numberfire. And I figure that game for a good number of HRs. Schwarber, Judge, and Stanton are all +250 or lower. Torres not even listed as one of the top HR threats today, but he already has three. And the Phils' starter is a lefty -- even better for the Yankees!

Chad Kuhl is most likely to give up a homer today -- by a lot -- but I don't know if I can count on a good amount of HRs in that game.

 

I used to have a program called OddsBoom. $15 a month. I’d look through all of the HR props (I had 12-15 open and un-limited accounts for a time in 2021). Let’s say Kyle Seeger was +550 at FanDuel but +400 everywhere else, I’d jump on him. FD used to often make the lines really bad for the power hitters (Judge would be +175 on Dinger Tuesday but +260 everywhere else, for example).

Or I would load up on guys who were +900 or +1000 on FD. For a $25 bet, I would usually get $15-20 of it back in most games anyway. I got a few of those long shots.

 

Mets and Brewers are just shattering overs this week.