President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

It was in his closing argument. Do you think he'd be saying that if his client didn't approve?

 

My guess is 538 will remain, b/c Disney now owns the name, brand, site, etc. It won't do any more interesting sports coverage but will continue getting election results hilariously wrong, albeit without Nate declaring the process was great and everything fell within the margin of error he "predicted."

 

I think it was more the $$$ he was costing Fox
Murdoch knows all the stuff that was redacted from the Dominion transcripts
The ones where Tucker was bitching about Fox executives and calling female employees the C word

 

Merrick Garland snoozes on

 

In Tuckie's defense, Sydney Powell is most definitely a Call Us Next Tuesday, as well as a heifer. Hell, let's throw in "dumb bitch" while we're at it.

Truth is an absolute defense. And in the pursuit of accuracy, Tuckie Boy could qualify for pretty much all those labels as well.

 

Trump put their lives in grave danger, but these Florida Republican U.S. lawmakers still idolize him | Opinion

 

He may lose the brand name, but he retains all of the rights to the data models.



Disney has laid off pretty much everyone from 538, so they're going to have an empty brand name. It will mean nothing.

Also, suggesting Nate Silver has gotten election predictions wrong is misunderstanding his model and his process. For 2016, for example, his model gave Trump a higher percentage of winning than most others. It was still an "upset," but it was a clear path that they laid out prior to the election.

He's also been good at identifying bad trends in polls, such as herding, and pushed back against some of the incorrect narratives about polling. Remember - he doesn't conduct polls. Others do. He takes the data, compares/contrasts, incorporates other historical data points, and plugs it all into his model for a larger viewpoint than one single poll can provide.

Where he's gotten into trouble is when he's veered toward punditry instead of sticking to the data analysis. That's certainly been a mistake.

 

I think it was an "all of the above". Carlson was a liability in too many ways, firing him will get them a lot of publicity. Tucker was getting really expensive, and not only was he widely disliked but quoted insulting hell out of ownership in private texts? Sack his ass and smile at his shock.

 

So has his godawful ball cap.

 

From Gabriel Sherman at Vanity Fair: Tuckems was as surprised as you were, and sources say he believes Murdoch’s kids will sell the company.

Tucker Carlson Was Blindsided by Fox News Firing

 

Thanks, I missed that detail about Nate retaining the data models. My guess is he'll do something new for next year

As for Nate and how wrong he is...you're right, he was more right than anyone else in 2016. He said to anyone who'd listen that Trump had a 1-in-3 chance of winning. Not a great chance, but certainly a legitimate one. Most of us laughed at how stupid Trump was and didn't take seriously the concept that enough of the country could be stupid enough to vote for him simply b/c they preferred the loud racist sexist rapist to a woman. I know I was mad the long shot came in and initially blamed Nate, which was wrong.

But he was awful in 2022. There were a ton of bad faith R-commissioned polls that he included in his model and it tilted the races decidedly towards the Republicans. He'll say the results fell within the projected results of the model, but he's New York state being run by competent Democrats away from getting both branches wrong. Even he didn't think the Democrats had a chance at salvaging a split. He had one of those cloying "Q&As" with a staffer in which he ran down all the reasons the Republicans would win the night and ended it with an off-handed comment that the Democrats officially had a 45% chance of winning the Senate.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-a-democratic-surprise-on-election-night/

He was way, way, way off and his methodology was the reason why. Add into the equation his idiot punditry, especially his contrarian hand-wringing about all the damage that was done by being TOO cautious in the early days of the pandemic, and unfollowing him a day or two after Election Day was the easiest decision I've ever made, even if it was a little disappointing b/c he might have been the first non-friend I ever followed on the bird app.

 

Ah, so it’s not the fault of the people who are banning the procedure, it’s the fault of the media who are reporting on the people who are banning the procedure.

Personal responsibility indeed.