Gambling Thread

Something I read on a different board makes me wonder if there is an opportunity. With the new college football rules around fewer clock stoppages (1st downs, etc.), how long will it take for games having fewer plays to be priced in to over-under totals and huge point spreads for lopsided matchups? Could there be an opportunity the first week or two until people catch on that there’s less time to pile up points in body bag games?

 

I've been doing parlays on Aussie Rules Football. Bang the favorites.

 

I played $2/$3 No Limit Hold em at the Bicycle casino in LA on friday night.
They had a little $1 bonus bet for each hand played. Similar to those little side bets you see at blackjack tables. You get $5 or $10 for a flop straight or flush, and it goes up from there. Three of a kind or straight flush pays more, etc. Also a bonus jackpot if they deal out a royal flush. I didn't have any interest in playing it. They are generally considered sucker bets, and I was just trying to keep my head above water in a pretty rich game for 2/3. Most hands were $20-$30 pre-flop, and I was getting my clock cleaned. Two dudes were generally playing the side bet.

I was there maybe 45 minutes, and a flop came Jd, 10d, Qd. Then the flop was Kd. And the river was Ad.

The jackpot hit! And only one guy played it. He won $182,000!

The other guy who had sporadically played it was inconsolable. And kind of pathetic. He gave a half hearted argument to the dealer that he had his one dollar out. It was immediately rejected.

The winner was happy but did not look overjoyed. Probably in shock. He said he's going car shopping for his wife Saturday. The rest of the table was excited for him.

He bought the table a round of drinks. And then came back after the paperwork, etc. and gave each of us $200. Super generous.

A fun night.

 

Guy who won was probably back to even.

 

Hopefully, he tipped the dealer a lot more than $200. 5K would be a good starting point.

 

Considering that he was under no obligation to come back and tip us (after buying us a round of drinks), I think he took care of the dealer.

 

I said, on the air this week, after the first day…

“Goals for the women’s World Cup are often hard to come by for the first week, if that observation could be a help to you.”

We are 16-2 to the under so far. (14-2-2 if you played U2 instead of U2.5 for more juice).

 

Playing parlays in Aussie Rules and the NPB are fun. The favorites are so heavy, I just pile them up and pray.

 

Al Michaels would be proud.

 

I'm on u218.5 total goals for the tournament, and that's looking lovely even if scoring has picked up some (91 goals in 38 matches so far, 2.4 per match, and the matches need to average 3.4 to get to 218.5). DraftKings severely overcompensated for the expanded tournament this year and served up a bad number, I think.

BTTS no is 30-8 so far. All six matches in Group A, all four so far in Group D and 5 of 6 in Group C featured at least one team getting shut out.

 

An excavator in my neighborhood. On the back, it read…

DOOSAN

I smile and nodded. #2020