2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Latest discussion has Idalia still hooking landward somewhere between Crystal River and the Apalachee Bay. The more north, the fewer people impacted. But if I'm anywhere near U.S. 98 north of St. Pete, I'm looking for higher ground today.

That's the mean side of a hurricane, and it's looking like it's going to hit a large area with winds and rain, plus the possibility of widespread flooding. If it tracks just a little more south, everybody from Weeki Wachee to Homosassa Springs could be floating.

 

That's the real kicker. Any hurricane is capable of stopping, curving in any direction, doubling back, moving in an unexpected direction. If it runs down the south edge of that cone instead of down the middle, things could be very bad indeed. I'd hate to be the person who has to come up with a way to help Florida citizens get home insurance that isn't obscenely expensive. You know DeSantis isn't going to come up with anything workable.

 

I just got my notice to renew my flood insurance, which is north of $1,400 and nearly as much as my yearly homeowner's insurance. But that's because when big storms like this make their way to Connecticut, Long Island Sound's storm surge is such that you can kayak down my street, which is what happened last year. We don't even have a basement, just a crawl space. I used to enjoy big storms, but that was before they became a legitimate threat to my own home. I have good friends in Tampa and hope to god this doesn't wallop them.

Add this to the reasons why I will never retire to Florida. I mean, where in the state are you safe from hurricanes? Or from Florida men?

 

I believe Hugo was still a cat 1 when it hit Charlotte and Fran was a dying cat 1 when it hit RDU. Got to see both first hand and decided that it was as close to the ocean as I ever wanted to be when one of those things comes to visit.

 

If you move to Florida, accepting the possibility of taking a hurricane hit simply goes with the package. The folks I really feel for are the ones who have lived somewhere for a long time, people who own a paid off house that is far more at risk today than it was when they bought it.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, Rick Wilson:

I’m a Florida man. A 5th generation Florida man, which makes me as rare as hen’s teeth. It is as rare as a guy fleeing his exploded meth lab, running down the center of a highway wearing nothing but a speedo, a trucker hat, and a tan, being chased by his parole officer, who also happens to be his common-law wife and first cousin.

Well, actually, that might be more statistically probable than a 5th generation living in this place, but one thing Florida Men (and Women) know is that there’s absolutely nothing like a hurricane to galvanize both the good and bad instincts of human beings in this place.

At this writing, Idalia is going to come ashore in the forgotten stretch of Florida just south of the Big Bend. Counties like Levy, Dixie, Lake, Alachua, and Taylor are going to get pounded hard if the storm sticks to the usual model. If it follows the GFS model, my fiance and I will be out of here with a car full of dogs, cats, and hopes that the Florida property insurance system doesn’t absolutely collapse.

It’s always fascinating to have conversations about the storms. Floridians notoriously won’t leave for a Cat 1 (Publix run = beer, wine, and snacks), mostly won’t budge for a Cat 2 (Water, bread, milk, beer, wine, and snacks), will consider leaving for a Cat 3 (“Meh, it’ll turn.”), but usually decide to ride it out. Floridians are just stubborn about assessing rick.

Cat 4 and 5 storms are mercifully rare, even in these climatologically uncertain times, and Idalia doesn’t quite seem inclined to jump up the scale there yet, though the hot, hot, hot Gulf of Mexico is like blood in a shark pool for a storm like this. Very little wind shear, shallow waters, and all that heat could mean tomorrow gets…sporty.​

Storms, and the Floridians who love them.

 

Poor Rick. Everyone assessing him.

 

Let's make matters worse with a full moon and king tide.
Hey, everybody drink!

 

Spoiler: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

FARTHER!

 

Fifteen foot storm surge is a good reason to drink.

 

He ended that piece with "Don't die stupid." I didn't see a whole lot to argue with this time.