College football Week 1 thread: Chasin’ That Neon Deion Rainbow

I was thinking that DJ might have been the problem but watching the Clemson O tonight was painful. Did the QB ever throw it more than 10 yds downfield?

 

The most impressive thing that QB did the whole game was chase down the guy who recovered the fumble.

 

DJU one of the big winners from Week 1

 

Just saw this:

Duke 28, Clemson 7

That is fantastic.

 

Great time for this to happen. Out of state programs, South Carolina recruiting is open for business.

 

I did forget JJ, he was a damn good, but they were not a particularly good team around him. I blame that on Norvell for blowing a few games (Jacksonville State, Louisville) messing around with one-legged Mackenzie Milton because he wasn't sold on Travis yet.

Keir Thomas was decent I guess. I mean heck Jashaun Corbin was decent, but they weren't real game changing talents. Keon Coleman is a first-round caliber WR. Getting Trey Benson to come back, especially considered his ACL injury from two years ago, was a big deal. Johnny Wilson isn't as good as Coleman, but he was the first real legit wide receiver FSU had since Tamorrion Terry.

 

Clemson post-Watson/Lawrence is seeming more and more like Texas after Young/McCoy - above-average coaches riding generational quarterbacks to a long period of success they couldn't replicate once QB play reverted to the mean. Dabo is a good coach, but he's not Saban.

 

Who would have ever thought that shitting on the ability for players to change teams would ever effect him?!?

 

Gene Stallings would tell Dabo to get into the damned portal and adapt to the times.

Probably with an f-word or two thrown in, too.

 

I know Jeff Sagarin's rankings system is proprietary but I still wonder if he places too much stock in whatever "past performance" starting value he assigns to each team before the start of the season. I built a Power Rankings program for NASCAR.com, so I'm well aware of GIGO, especially when there aren't many data points. The Rankings after the Daytona 500 were the most skewed of the season, mainly because it was the first race and one in which luck played a major role. It took a few weeks before the data matched perception.

The fact that LSU remains ahead of FSU in his rankings (and that Clemson and TCU are still considered top 30 programs) tells me there's a lot of noise in his model that definitely doesn't account for the massive changes in roster creation, especially via the transfer portal. Granted, LSU, Clemson and TCU might all be top 30 programs at the end of the season but that's not what the first week indicates. The computer shouldn't assume those were "hiccups" in its formula and downplay those results, particularly head to head.

Yes, I'm aware of recency bias but you can't accurately forecast 2023 with most of the 2022 season providing a huge portion of your baseline. Maybe it's a situation that will correct itself with time but if you start with a flawed premise you'll definitely end up with one.