President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

So much of the Democrats’ national strategy for 2024 hinges on Trump not going one hamberder over the line into a casket. If the Republicans could upgrade to only a somewhat distasteful candidate, they’d win in a walkover.

People are sick of gerontocracy.

 

A. Trump convicted, GOP replacement beats Biden.
B. Trump acquitted, Biden beats Trump.

What choose you? I choose A.

 

While I mostly agree, how does any GOP candidate back off the rhetoric at this point and still win?

If you believe anything less than, "Democrats are intentionally trying to destroy the country by making your kids gays who hate white people," can you win the GOP nomination? How do we get back to just normal Republican candidates?

 

I can't remember the exact breakdown and am wasting time here while working on something else so I'm not gonna look it up, but the Democrats have won something like six of the last seven popular votes. Their policies are fine and Biden is fine. The electoral college map always makes it interesting. But even in a very hypothetical fantasy land case where the Republicans nominate someone sane, Biden could still win.

 

Biden not running would lead to - him and the the rest of the capital P party giving their torch to Kamala, or staying hands off with a wink to Newsom or others - in either case dealing with Biden's age is the preferable option. Anointing Harris or Not Anointing Harris is something NOBODY wants to deal with.

 

Early fall of a President's third year in office is almost never near where public opinion is when election day rolls around 14 months later. At this time in 2019, Biden was polling more than 10 points ahead of Trump. In 2011, Obama was polling behind every Republican candidate by 3-4 points. In 1995, Clinton was way behind. In 1991, GHW Bush was so far ahead people wondered if the Democrats would field a candidate. My general rule of thumb is that the incumbent gets to bat last. Doesn't always win, but does get the advantage of how change-averse most people are.

 

Biden’s policies poll better than he does. I think it is not even him specifically that people dislike (outside of Republicans who are brainwashed to hate any Democrat) but the idea of someone in their 80s in the White House. That seems to be the age barrier where even otherwise popular incumbents (which he is not) wear out their welcome in any political office.

If it weren’t for the whole Trump thing, you can’t tell me Democrats would be content to renominate a president with an approval rating in the low 40s.

 

I kind of wonder about this. Republicans have been getting their strongest gains when Trump is on the ballot, and underperforming for special elections and midterms that he isn't connected with. I have a lurking suspicion that his name brings out the Racist Fuckwads to the election booth, who would otherwise just stay home. There's the chance that if he's not on the ballot at all, those people aren't going to show up for Diet Trump (DeSantis, etc.), and it turns into a Nixon-McGovern style bloodbath. (Well, okay, not that bad - Hard to see scenarios play out where R lose like Alabama, Mississippi, etc.)

 

Or we could just admit that the last two polls we're reacting to were 1. commissioned by Donald Trump in the event of the WSJ poll and 2. skewed so egregiously to give CNN the desired result as to render it less than useless.

Y'all knock it off or I'm going to start posting the Chicken Little pic again.

 

If Fatfuck leaves through any sequence of events, the replacement/successor still has his orange goo dribbling off their lips.

Plus, if Fatfuck is convicted and the GOP actually removes him from their national ticket, he'll draw millions of write-ins, which will all come from the R side.

 

Also, no matter who the Republicans put up, that person will still be tied to the abortion changes.

 

The only road to victory for Team Fatfuck is if the God Emperor himself departs the scene in circumstances so shocking and tragic to produce a Kennedy-effect sympathy tsunami from a heartbroken America for his inheritor.

Meaning ... to his true believers ... Fatfuck is worth more ... uhmm ... ??