Gambling Thread

Man, I've been sports gambling since elementary school. But the insidiousness of Draft Kings and Fan Duel seeping into everything really sucks.

 

I fell asleep with that one in the balance. Pleasant to wake up to.

 

I don’t know if the lines from the ESPN app are ever available to real life bettors. But 24 hours ago the Georgia-South Carolina spread was 34 and this morning it was 27.

 

Not going to bog down the NFL thread, just jeez, just won an insane SGP ... Had James Cook for 2+ catches, Dalton Kincaid for 15+ yards, Allen for O29.5 yards rushing and U276.5 yards passing. First two hit easily. Allen was stuck on 29 yards for about 2 1/2 quarters but gets one scramble on the final drive to get to 36. Cool. He didn't have enough field left to get to 277 passing yards without overtime, so of course, doink it is, and we go to OT, and the Bills win the toss. He only needs 41 yards. Then that finish? Dang. That's how you get people to watch to the end of a game you have no stakes in, lol.

 

On marketing with sports books, if I was in charge, I would have some radical promos.

First: if you bet a 4+ leg parlay where all legs are -150 or better, if you go 0-for, instead of a loss, a +200 payout. It's JUST as hard to go 0-for-4 as it is 4-0.

If I ran a casino, on the 22nd of every month, a "22 IS 21!" promo for all blackjack players. If you get a 22 on three cards, you get paid 3:2.

It's great PR and you'd get more volume for both.

 

The parlay promo, I'd get behind that. Though I'd never win that, as I'm usually a two-leg charlie who takes a tough beat on one of the legs. I rarely do SGPs, but I was compelled on Monday for some reason.

 

Little-known Dr. Seuss book, “If I Ran A Casino.”

 

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly.

 

The SGP is a relatively new option that has come with the apps. I remember the actual books didn't do it. I was at the Poker Palace in North Las Vegas in late 2018 and amazed I could bet on Titans-Jags at halftime. William Hill's app also didn't so the SGPs.

Turns out those have become the slot machines of sports books. People do them, they line up to do them and they have an incredible hold for the book, usually 15-20%. That's 3x the hold of a roulette table!

I never play SGPs unless there is a boost (or a risk-free bet) and only with a linear approach. Only ONE leg can tied to the final score/total/spread, etc. The other legs have to be decided earlier in the game, like first quarter, first half, first 3 innings, etc.

If it's a risk-free, I'll have one major-plus leg as the first one. I've won big $$$ or hedged on: Aaron Rodgers first TD scorer, George Kittle first TD scorer, Devon Booker first basket...

 

Agreed. I had a profit boost that moved it from +360 to +510, so it felt like it was worth a shot. If I do them, I like to tie them to one team, like I did the other night with Buffalo. Taken as a whole, the bet entirely made sense. I knew they wanted to get Kincaid involved so 15 yards didn't seem like a stretch, and I knew Cook would at least get two dumpoffs in the backfield. Thought Allen would struggle to hit deep balls against the Jets, so that under yardage seemed legit, at least until the game went to OT. And 30 didn't seem like an unreachable number of rushing yards for Allen. I think if you have a good feel for how the game may play out and you keep a SGP sensible -- i.e., don't put eight legs in there at +1000 odds and cry when you miss one -- you can win from time to time.

 

I don't understand how SGPs are a new phenomenon.

I did them all the time back in the day when the bookie took your bets on carbon paper. Dallas and the over. Cleveland and the under.

Certainly not to the extent of today where you can bet on any individual performance or first baskets or first five minutes or whatever. But they were same-game parlays!