The 2023 Running Baseball Thread

JP! The Mariners stay alive!

 

Heard it live on the radio driving home from work. Rick Rizzs, ATV injuries and all, is still a treat to hear calling the key moments of games.

 

Orioles reach 100 wins for the first time since 1980.

 

Damn, gotta read that. Foxy lol

 

The value of "a" stolen base is not the issue. The issue is the cost/benefit calculus in play in the pursuit of stolen bases.

 

How many of Acuña's swipes led to runs and if you want to go balls-deep, how many of those SB-runs tied or gave the Braves the lead, or were the winning runs?

Newsweek -- Newsweek? -- wrote this: Examining the significance of Ronald Acuna's 40 home run 70 steal season

The 70th stolen base:

Acuña recorded his 70th steal in the bottom of the 10th inning. With his team down one run, his RBI single tied the game. He went on to steal second base, setting a new milestone, and came around to score the game-winning run.​

Also, didn't know he didn't strike that much, just 82 times in 634 AB's.

 

Even that's a pretty fraught question, because to answer it you have to estimate how many runs were scored that wouldn't have scored otherwise.

 

This ain't WAR lol.

 

Ok, so do they significantly impact total runs or not? At what percentage of success rate do they become helpful, 75%, 80%?

 

It is certainly possible to figure out how many times those stolen bases put him in position to score when he most likely wouldn't have scored if he had stayed put. The problem is that leaves out the disruptive element of base-stealing. It doesn't just get pitchers to try their pick-off moves or to throw from the stretch. It is a distraction for the pitchers, catchers, and infielders.

 

I don't think it's quite that high ... something like 65% to 75% is what I recall reading.

 

How do you quantify how much of a distraction it is to a pitcher when there's a known stolen base threat on base? I'm guessing there must be stats about how well pitchers fair in such situations. Not with all guys on base; that's simple. But merely with guys who are threats to steal. The idea that the Cardinals in the 1980s didn't benefit from stealing bases would be an inane one to make.