Gambling Thread

Oh, I got my ass kicked last week. Backing a bunch of Sean Payton trends and taking Denver +6.5 will do that to you. Hoping for a better outcome this week.

 

The Joes cleaned house on Sunday except for the survivor picks (Cowboys, Jags, Ravens).

 

We’re back!

Texans +3.5
Browns-Ravens adjusted under to 42.5
Rams ML (whew)

I do think the Rams blowing a 23-0 second half lead would have been one of the shittier beats out there but they got it done

 

I liked the Cardinals +14 at the 49ers, but decided to go a different direction with my NFL bets. And after seeing the end of that game, I'm glad I did or I might be punching walls right now.
Cardinals got behind 21-3, got it back to 21-16, and then the Niners put it away with a couple of touchdowns, the last with 1:50 to go.
Cards had a chance for the backdoor cover in the final seconds and dropped two touchdown passes on their last two plays. Perfect throws, and the receivers flat dropped them. Final score of 35-16.
Expect to see that one on Bad Beats on Monday night.

 

A good week for the SuperContest.

Jags, Bills, Rams, Vikings, Titans.

Come to poppa.

 

Chiefs gave me a kick in the nuts on the way out the door when Mahomes slides down at the 1 to prevent the backdoor cover (-9).
Finished the weekend 4-10, with one winning ticket (Texas State -6 at Southern Miss) that almost ended in disaster when Texas State let most of a 42-10 halftime lead slip away.

I just have to keep telling myself that the first month of football season always sucks for me. It's just hitting the right combos on parlays. It's just getting enough data points. It's just getting a shred of luck. It's just being smart with my budget ...

 

Played a four-leg parlay in the early window today:
• Rutgers +12.5 at Wisconsin (a grind, but it got home)
• LSU -4.5/O64.5 at Missouri
• Maryland +19.5 at Ohio State
LSU finally got over the hump with a pick-six with about 35 seconds left for the miracle backdoor cover. Right about the same time, however, Ohio State was kicking a meaningless field goal with two minutes left to finish a 37-17 win against Maryland. That was after the Terps were right there with them for three quarters andhad a 17-10 lead at one point.
I don't know if that's the gambling gods openly mocking me, but they're at least chortling in my direction.

Of course, Alabama -2.5 at Texas A&M got home thanks to some fortuitous late-game events. Bama got a safety to go up 26-17; A&M had a touchdown wiped off the board by a holding call, then decided to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 2 to leave it at 26-20 instead of 26-24; and Alabama's RB had a crazy juggling catch to pick up the first down that iced the game.
So maybe the karma is evening out today.

 

Another bad beat in Colorado (-4.5) at Arizona State.
Arizona State scores a touchdown to tie it at 24 with 50 seconds left, so I now need overtime to get the cover. Colorado hits a long pass on its first play, but the receiver trips around the 30-yard line when he might have scored. Buffs end up kicking the field goal to win 27-24.
This is a weird day.

 

Kind of funny. I had the same three games. Rutgers with the backdoor cover, had Maryland to cover (ugh), and Missouri to cover (ughugh). I've just gotten my ass kicked in college football this year. Lost on KState-Okie Lite Friday. Lost when I took Kentucky live to cover +19.5 only to have Georgia finally look like fucking Georgia and blow the doors off the Wildcats. (Also lost a heavy favorites Euro football bet in the morning, Leipzig -400 plays to a 0-0 draw, oof.)

Then again, while waiting for my tee time today, I threw a WTF NFL parlay up -- Dolphins-Giants adjusted O45.5; Ravens-Steelers adjusted U42.5; Colts to cover +2.5. Also took a DK boost on Achene to score an anytime TD at +150. So as bad as yesterday was, I won about $80 today on those two bets. I'm clearly way better at betting the NFL at this point. Also, just take the regular under on any AFC North divisional game. I keep buying unnecessary points, but every one of those fuckers is a rock fight.

 

Can't be afraid to go with what you know. I prefer college because there are more games, which means more nooks and crannies to find good angles in. The NFL is a one-score, coin flip league. But if you have a better handle on the NFL, then pound the hell out of it.

 

Managed my first really good weekend of the season. Besides what was mentioned above, I also hit Arizona +22 against USC (Trojans never came within two scores of covering), and sweated out a small NFL three-teamer this afternoon with the Eagles, Jets and Chiefs. Wound up winning $43 for the weekend, which isn't much but does mean the casino pays for my bets instead of me next week. I think I managed my budget well for once, and stayed away from a couple I had second thoughts about (like Kentucky-Georgia).

More than that, I was 8-2 on the games I bet on. The two misses were Maryland-Ohio State (which I wasn't wrong on with my logic, it just didn't win); and Colorado-Arizona State (which was one defensive stop from limping home). That makes me hope I'm starting to see the patterns a little bit better.

Speaking of Arizona State, they might be the spunky underdog that I find and come to love every October and November. They're 1-5, which means they should get some lines in the high teens and 20s as they play the better teams in the Pac-12 the rest of the way. The only game they have left against an opponent not currently ranked is the finale against Arizona, which is not a terrible team. At the same time, Arizona State is just good enough to give teams some fits. They play hard. They haven't covered every game (2-3-1 ATS), but the only blowout loss they've had is to Fresno State.
So what you're going to end up with is a team that is better than the two wins it'll be lucky to end up with, getting three-score lines against teams that have no business laying that many points (like UCLA, Washington State and Utah).
I think there will be some real value with them down the stretch.

 

Betting the narrative is usually a bad idea, but there was no way in hell I wasn't betting on Breece Hall & the Jets D scoring TDs today in the revenge game to end all revenge games. Suck it, Sean Payton.

Also came super close to my biggest hit ever: A four-way TD parlay of Saints D, Sam LaPorta, Jared Goff & Jonathan Taylor. Mac Jones is fucking terrible and LaPorta was the only weapon for Goff, whom I figured could sneak in for a TD. Put $3 on it and missed out on a $1,400+ payday b/c the franchise back got usurped by Zack fucking Moss. Still legged each one so I came out ahead for the day.