Meanwhile on the International front....

OK.

Now what?

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2023/12/07/no-endgame-in-gaza-fintan-otoole/

 

Israel has exactly the problem that was predicted before the offensive started. Using bombs, artillery shells and tanks in a crowded urban environment leads to excessive civilian casualties. While the numbers are disputed the estimates seem to fall in the 12-14k dead range, with about 2k of them being Hamas. Estimates are that there are 20-25k members of Hamas. The stated policy of eliminating Hamas would kill 200,000 to 250,000 at that rate. Israel is not going to be able to continue in this way forever. At some point the various pressures to stop the killing will become strong enough to force an end to it if Israel does not make that decision on their own.

After that there will be an uneasy "peace", broken by incidents of terrorism. Then over time the young people who survived this will reach an age to form a new hard core of resistance and the cycle will restart. If they don't find a way to a Palestinian homeland it will simply continue for more generations.

Even if Israel wipes out Hamas, a new group will form, and Mossad will not know their leadership, doctrine, tactics, and supporters in the way they do Hamas now, which means they will be far less predictable.

 

Israel, Hamas agree to extend pause in fighting for two days, Qatar announces

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/27/israel-hamas-war-hostages-news-gaza-palestine/

 

An AP piece on the conditions for hostages held by Hamas.

Irregular meals, benches as beds. As freed hostages return to Israel, details of captivity emerge

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-destroyer-ballistic-missiles-fired-064853375.html

At what point is the United States going to have to start getting more aggressive in defending its own forces in the region?

 

When the missiles land significantly less than 10 nautical miles away. Showing offm

 

They've made some hits back with cruise missiles after attacks on bases. The Arab street is pretty pissy, I don't think they'll make a big strike in reprisal unless an attack is significant, especially casualties. We've got two Ohio class subs in the area. The cruise missile Ohios carry 150 or so missiles, so if they seriously want to reach out and swat someone it wouldn't be hard.

 

Beau on the reasoning behind both sides accepting the agreement to extend the pause two more days, the state of the fight, and possible outcomes.

 

Some of the strikes have hit. If someone keeps taking swings at you, eventually you are going to have to swing back.

 

The question is, how?

And how effectively?

 

That’s essentially what happened for the armistice at the end of World War I. There were military commanders who demanded their soldiers keep fighting right up until 11 a.m. on November 11, 1918.

Some units on both sides didn’t receive the news until later so they kept fighting after 11 a.m.

One nutty story I’ve seen was some American artillery men were told they could pack up everything and back to their camps. They looked at the shells, decided they didn’t want to carry them back, so they lobbed them back to the Germans anyways after the armistice.