Gambling Thread

Folks! There is one game on the NHL slate tonight. ONE.

Predators at Senators.

It's our second-period Super Bowl!!!

 

Haha only one leg of the parlay though...fucking Preds scored three in the first and then allowed the Sens to score three in the second. Oh well. Hit the leg and used a $5 freebie on the parlay.

 

First time?

 

South Carolina +14
Marquette ML
Central Michigan -3.5

I needed double OT in Mount Pleasant for this to hit, but yay, Go Chips!

 

We always bitch about the bad beats, should talk about the good fortune too. With Randle & Anunoby out for the Knicks, I put a single buck on Josh Hart getting a triple-double (+3500).

10 points
10 rebounds
10 assists...the last with 38 seconds left in a blowout win, God bless you, Tom Thibodeau, you fucking insane never-pull-my-starters fucker

 

Picking through the Super Bowl prop bets tonight and it seems like there are some decent odds to be found. Of course, that's how they get you ...
My main requirement on these is that they have plus-odds. I'm nickel and diming these to the max — no more than $10 on any of them, $5 on most, and if I can get away with $2 and $3 bets at the casino I'm going to do that on some of the ones with multiple options like touchdown scorers and MVP. This is very much a discount guide to prop bets.
My budget for the game is about $100. It's more for fun than making money, so if I recoup $75 of that $100 I'll be happy — even if the poor bastard working the cage who has to verify a dozen tickets is not. I've included what I'm planning to bet on each one.
I'm also looking for bets that'll engage me the entire game. So things like the highest/lowest scoring quarter, MVP, totals, or events that can happen on any play hold more appeal for me than things that are over and done quickly, like the coin toss or first reception/touchdown/play, etc.

MVP ($4-$5 each)
• McCaffrey (+450), Kelce (+1400), Rashee Rice (+4000), Nick Bosa (+4000), Dre Greenlaw (+10,000) — McCaffrey and Kelce at those kinds of plus-odds almost seem like no-brainers to throw some money at. Bosa at +4000 is a good flyer as a defensive MVP candidate. And Rice and Greenlaw are good longshots. Rice has been the Chiefs' best wide receiver the second half of the season, and Greenlaw always seems to be around the ball. If Greenlaw gets a pick or two, or scores a touchdown, he could slide in there.

First touchdown/First points ($3 each)
• Isiah Pacheco (+500/+850)
• Christian McCaffrey (+290/+550)
• Travis Kelce (+600/+950)
All are good candidates to score first. I especially like the odds on Pacheco and McCaffrey if there's a first-and-goal inside the 5.

Highest/lowest scoring quarter ($3 each)
• First quarter (+650) and third quarter (+600) for highest
• Second quarter (+700) and fourth quarter (+550) for lowest
Just decent value plays here. Nothing substantial to back them up, other than maybe one team is trying to grind clock in the fourth quarter and shortens the game to where we only get 7-10 points scored. This feels akin to betting Super Bowl squares.

Scoring ($5 to $10 each)
• First score is a field goal (+370) - Another value bet with good odds. Planning to bet $5.
• Either team to score a two-point conversion (+260) - I initially looked at the Chiefs (+500) and the 49ers (+600) separately, and then did the math and realized the better deal was to bet the same amount on either one to do it. Math is weird sometimes. Planning to bet $10 on this, since I was going to do $5 on each team.
• Chiefs to score 21-30 points (+130) - Seems about the right range for this kind of game, and is a nice spread. Planning to bet $10, which might be a bit much, but any less at those odds feels like it's not worth it.

Patrick Mahomes ($5 each)
• Over 269.5 passing yards (+130) - The odds on this bet kinda suck, unless you're pretty sure he'll go over 300 yards (+270). There's a big jump from O269.5 to O279.5 (+163) so maybe I'll push it a little.
• Exactly two touchdown passes (+200) - I had this one down at first, but crossed it off when I started totaling up my budget. I like it, but there's no wiggle room.

Isiah Pacheco ($3-$5 each)
• O3.5 receptions (+145) - They throw to him enough out of the backfield that this is worth a flyer. He's had nine games of four receptions or more, although only one of those was in the playoffs.
• O74.5 rushing yards (+133) - He's usually right around this number, so let's go with the over. You can also go with Pacheco for most rushing yards (+160) as an alternate option. If the Chiefs keep McCaffrey (a whopping -286 favorite) in check then Pacheco is the only other viable candidate.

Travis Kelce ($3)
• Most scrimmage yards (+1000) - If you think Kelce can get 100+ receiving yards, and they have been throwing to him a ton in the playoffs, then this is a good longshot bet.

Defense
• Chris Jones Over 0.5 sacks (+138) - Chris Jones has been quiet in the playoffs (one-half sack in three games), but he's always a threat to get one. And he only needs one to pay this off. Going to throw $5 at this one.
• Dre Greenlaw to have an interception (+1200) - I might be irrationally high on Dre Greenlaw, but like I said he always seems to be around the ball. I like it as a possible longshot, but it's enough of a longshot that I also crossed it off the list for budgetary reasons. If I come back to it, it's a $3 bet — that's enough to win some money on a longshot, but not so much that I'm lighting money on fire on said longshot.

Miscellaneous ($3 each)
• Field goal or PAT will hit the uprights or crossbar (+495) - This is such a stupid bet that I love it. It also chapped my ass that I bet "yes" two years in a row and it didn't hit. So I skipped it last year and, of course, the Chiefs banged a field goal off the upright. So why not? This is about having fun, right?
• There will be a punt that's a touchback (Chiefs +275/49ers +355) - Not sure why there's such a gap between the teams, but I can see one or both of these guys bouncing one into the end zone. You can also bet that a punt will be downed inside the 5-yard line (+240), but that juice doesn't seem worth the squeeze.

 

Just to make sure I’ve got this right.

I get the better coach and QB — with that coach off a bye — against a team that could have lost as 7-point home favorites in consecutive weekends… and 2.5 points.

 

Third week in a row the Chiefs have been underdogs, and they were only a four-point favorite against the Dolphins. It's like, even if you lose that bet it's hard to feel bad about it just because it seems so ridiculous. Sometimes you just have to roll with good fortune.

 

I went to my hometown's casino on the way to a college basketball game Saturday. I was going to place a rare wager on the Super Bowl. And within five minutes of arriving, it became clear that it was such a hassle to place the bet, I dismissed the idea.