Running 2023-24 NCAA Basketball Thread

UAB out scored Memphis 61-46 in first half.
They might lose by 25.
They being UAB.

 

I like how the NET breaks down the wins and losses. I hate that it has evolved to almost completely emulate KenPom. One of the worst elements of it is the point differential in wins, which could technically be an offensive or defensive efficiency thing, but it applies to no end and gives teams huge boosts when they blow out even the worst of teams. There should be a cap on that element, and I believe there was the first year they used it, but they got rid of it. The RPI, which is funny enough to still be good for all the rest of the sports, didn't have that element. It was simply wins or losses. That alone may account for most of the differences in the RPI and NET.

On the KenPom factor, the difference in that and RPI was one reason they finally said they used KenPom, I don't believe it was on team sheets, or at least publicly, before 2015 or so, was the big difference between it and RPI. So then they made them almost the same.

It is funny because people are blaming the MW this year of figuring out the NET just like people whined about the RPI in the past, what year did the Valley really game it and got four teams? 2005 or 2006? But the power conferences have benefited from both forever. It's why they justify all those teams getting in.

Regardless of metrics, at-larges for non-power teams have virtually disappeared over the last 20 or more years. I have seen it as low at three total. Would love an Indiana State or Drake in over the ninth Big 12 team, but at this point selection isn't super secretive in how they do it other than the occasional eye test. There are times it helps a non-power school, like Drake in 2021, but usually power schools benefit.

 

In looking at the NCAA record book, I noticed something striking. In 2012, Iona made the field at large. I double-checked. It's true.
That year, 11 of the 37 at-large bids went to teams outside of the power structure.
From the 2010-16 tournaments, 22.13% of AL bids (56 of 253) were outside of the power structure. From 2017-23, that portion fell to 14.75%.
The A-10 got multiple at-large bids for nine straight years (2010-18).

 

Some of that may be structural. The Big East added Butler, Creighton and Xavier starting in 2014 while the teams it lost largely went to the ACC - within the power structure. There's some other additions - TCU, Utah- that may have been a factor, too.

Butler made two, Creighton made five and Xavier made three. That's 10 right there.

 

Yep. Just look at the membership of Conference USA these days. Or the WAC.

 

Not sure I would call Florida State wanting out an implosion. When Maryland left, that wasn't an implosion.

Does all this hurt the national perception of the conference? Sure. Are people here angry about it? Yes. Both can be true, yet I'm not sure it's the start of an implosion ... unless a lot of schools leave all at once. When the ACC becomes the Pac-12, then we can go with implosion.

 

Yeah, but most of the old good teams from those leagues are in the AAC or MW, so there wasn't a power change so to speak. The A-10 has also expanded and has seen fewer teams as well. Creighton and Xavier may impact this some, but TCU never made the tournament before they moved to the Big 12 and Utah has made it much less. I think it's more just a rearranging of where teams are and power conferences still are getting the benefit of the doubt.

I am sure the NET overall structure has impacted it too.

 

Florida State's impending departure is not an implosion and I never said it was. But they are not the only ones with their eye on the door, just the ones taking on the task of breaking the grant of rights.

Clemson, Carolina, Virginia and potentially NC State following FSU out the door is an implosion and I think - perhaps wrongly - that if the league ends up with only three tournament bids, the pressure for them to move increases significantly. You're already way behind in media rights and now your share of the NCAA tournament pie is going way down, too.

I would not be surprised to see one or more join the FSU lawsuit as the pressure mounts.

 

I just looked and since 2015 there have not been more than seven non-power at larges, with a low of four. There was a splurge from 2012-14 with 11, 10, and 10. The A-10 was powerful then, with five at-larges in 2014. The five years before that there were 7, 7, 4, 6, and 6. So we could see where it might be headed. In 2004 there were 12 and that's where I stopped, a good 20 years.

So Creighton and Xavier and Utah and TCU were all in their new conferences during two of the biggest at-large years in the past 20. The powers to be certainly decided during that time it was too much. It was also when the RPI really finally fell out of order and KenPom started to be used and the NET eventually became a thing.

 

Where are these ACC teams not named Florida State going? Not to the Big Ten, I assure you.

And I'm not sure FSU can make it to the Big Ten, either. Bobby Bowden, sadly, is no longer with us to charm FSU's way into that league. Florida State probably doesn't add much value on a TV deal. (I could write 500 words on why that is but I'll spare everyone.)

Of course FSU is better at football than many programs in the Big Ten. But look at the way its fans support the sports there.

Notre Dame and North Carolina would be the Big Ten's preferred adds.

 

Side note: The RPI stunk. Not sure the NET is much better - it rewards blowouts, which in basketball can be shaped by things other than effort - but it is better than the RPI.

The NET does not love the Big East. And the Big East has three teams - Providence, Nova and St. John's - that may not make the tournament, but simultaneously no one wants to see in the first round. Boise State, which lost by 14 to Butler, on the other hand...

Add: Seton Hall is a 4th Big East team in that category, but, aside from that UConn win, not sure I've been that impressed.

 

Margin of victory should play some role in a computer ranking but not to the current degree. What difference does it really make beating Double Directional State by 15 points instead of 25?