The Economy

Also. ... same thing this month. Huge divergence between the establishment and household surveys. The household survey showed a LOSS of 184,000 jobs. But that won't make any of the headlines. The household survey shows NO job growth in the last 10 months.

 

Yup. I have Morning Schmoe on the background and all of the headlines are "275,000 jobs added in February!"

 

If people actually looked at the surveys (non seasonally adjusged). ... they'd find it beyond sad. We lost manufacturing jobs again. The places we have net growth in jobs (other than low, wage, low skill jobs) are government and government-subsidized endeavors. For $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, you'd think they could create a better fantasy than this.

 

Why would anyone ask one simple question: The number of workers employed in the U.S. was 160.97 mllion. ... the LOWEST number since May 2023, so how did we add another 275,000 jobs?

There actually is a simple answer (if you net out factors), also in the report. ... Workers holding more than one job! 278,000 Americans took on more than one job in February, and this has been happening month after month.

It's so sad. We have millions of people whose real wages haven't come anywhere near close enough to keep up with prices of things they need to buy rocketing higher and they are stuck working multiple jobs (there are no good paying, full-time jobs for them), as they struggle to keep their heads above water.

But let's debate why there is so much discontent because "the numbers" show the economy is great and people just don't get it.

 

The numbers are correct in that tweet. ... the commentary probably isn't. The bond market in the wake of the number is acting like the Fed is still going to cave. It's been preordained. ... 1) election year, and 2) we can't afford the interest payments on all of the public and private debt ZIRP saddled our economy with. Everyone knows it. It's a question of whether it happens in June or not.

I remember when Ben Bernake made up his "2 percent" inflation target bullshit to justify monetizing trillions of dollars of debt. I used to be incredulous, he was telling people he was fucking that he was saving the world by fucking them. And everyone was so clueless about what he did that it went relatively unchallenged.

Well, get ready for the magical "3 percent" targets. ... until a "4 percent" target becomes necessary, if we get there before people with pitchforks have their say.

The numbers themselves are bogus, FWIW. If they calculated the CPI using the methodology they used for decades prior to their every-changing alchemy, they'd be reporting 8 percent headline numbers right now, according to Shadow Stats.

 

If you believe their numbers, one bright spot. ... broadly, the cost of food has stabilized. Prices have still risen dramatically over the last 4 years, but for the last month they remained relatively flat.

The headline number was driven by gas (which they exclude from core) and rent (which they ridiculously minimize in their basket to lower their number to keep COLA raises on entitlements lower).