MLB '24 Regular Season Thread

Pat Hughes takes the fifth inning off. After that long inning and the long rain delay, he opens the sixth inning after three hours off with a droll “Are we back?”

 

Bill James wants some receipts before he’s going to enjoy anything:

 

To a lesser extent, I'm beginning to embrace that stance myself. Especially when every Baltimore prospect down to rookie ball is touted as the next big thing.

There's a reason why they're called "prospects."

That said, Skenes looked like he has special stuff. Hope he stays healthy.

 

Gunnar Henderson has 27 RBI in 38 games, a 115-RBI pace for a season. As a leadoff hitter.

Betts (107) and Acuna (106) hold the existing marks for RBI by a leadoff man, both last season.

 

Baltimore amassed so much talent so quickly it led to rule changes. I think a lot of prospect porn is overrated but this is a legit pipeline on par with what the Cubs had several years ago.

 

I'll start with 2019, since that's when a lot of this started for Baltimore.

2019 top prospects
1. Ryan Mountcastle (everyday player)
2. Yusniel Diaz (bust)
3. Austin Hays (role player)
4. DL Hall (helped bring Burnes to Baltimore)
5. Grayson Rodriguez (No. 2 starter)
6. Ryan McKenna (role player)
7. Keegan Akin (bullpen piece)
11. Dean Kremer (No. 5 starter)
18. Dillon Tate (bullpen piece)
25. Michael Baumann (bullpen piece)
46. John Means (No. 4 starter)

2020 top prospects (omitting repeats from the previous list)
1. Adley Rutschman (budding superstar)
9. Gunnar Henderson (budding superstar)
26. Kyle Bradish (No. 3 starter)

2021
3. Heston Kjerstad (role player)
11. Jordan Westburg (everyday player)
35. Tyler Wells (utility pitcher)

2022
3. Colton Cowser (everyday player)

2023
1. Jackson Holliday (cup of coffee in bigs, still very young)

That's a lot of homegrown talent filling the roster, not to mention Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Felix Bautista, also homegrown guys. And, man, did the Orioles get dragged for the Jorge Lopez trade at the time. It netted Yennier Cano, among others. I think that's what's been the most fun part of rooting for this team the past few years, the fact that we've been following these guys in the minors and seeing it all come together is very satisfying. It's also why it's easy to get pissed off when someone like Craig Kimbrel comes in and starts screwing it up.

 

bill james - talk about someone whose value peaked long ago.

 

Verlander through 4 perfect against the Tigers in Detroit. 44 pitches thrown.

 

Broken up, 2 out in 5th.

 

For all of the Gunnar love here, he just made an inexcusably lazy play with two outs that has cost his team four runs, and counting. Brutal.

 

I can't think of anything James has done with prospects.

James was very good with changing the perspective of people following baseball, but even he would tell you his math skills fall short of how far sabermetrics has gone.

 

Building a productive farm system is equal parts skill and luck. You need people in the organization who not only can evaluate and project raw talent, but people who can develop that talent into major league ready parts. The Orioles have an abundance of riches right now. It seems every kid in an O's uniform is performing at or above his projected skill level. They drafted well but also picked players who learned how to be successful.

The Dodgers, Cardinals, Braves and Yankees do this year after year, and you wonder what they know that other organizations can't replicate.

At the same time, a lot of things have to break your way. Having the first overall pick is rarely an indication of "can't miss." Injuries can derail players, particularly if you're pitcher-heavy. Or your prospects wind up flaming out at AAA or AA. You need guys drafted in the lower rounds to outperform expectations. The White Sox recently had a bushel of highly-prized prospects and now they're staring at a 100-loss season again.

Obviously, I'm equal parts jealous and envious of how quickly Baltimore's plan came together. The Tigers went for pitching rather than hitting (either on purpose or just because of the way the drafts played out). Plus, it's obvious Detroit's front office/farm system needed a massive overhaul as well. So the Mizes, Mannings and Torkelsons didn't develop -- or may never reach the potential -- that Baltimore is seeing. At the same time, nobody expected Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson and Kerry Carpenter to pop up from the middle of the draft and be key pieces of the rebuild.

Will the Colt Keiths, Jace Jungs, Ty Maddens all work out? I still wonder if not taking Marcelo Mayer for Jackson Jobe will haunt this team for the next decade.

In any case, you really want to see homegrown talent be the core of your next contender. And the O's are proof positive that luck is where opportunity meets preparation.