President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Or Uncle Vlad flips a couple switches, and badda bing, badda boom, there goes 70,000 votes.

 

Dems have faced Trump in two general elections --- and underperformed each time.

And even if the race appears tied, Biden gets a 2-2.5% bump by virtue of his dominance in California. Which means he's dragging in the other 49 states.

It takes a 3%+ edge nationally before Dems can begin to escape EV gravity.

 

Under performed in 2020? Is that what Putin told you? Biden flipped five states and got 80+ million votes and he under performed? Good God man

 

Underperformed vs. where the polls had him. That's what underperformed means.

You can win 400 EVs, but if polls had you with a Reagan landslide, you underperformed.

Biden was up by 9 points at this time four years ago. He won by 4.5.

Look at the October poll margins in these states. Biden +3 in FLORIDA. LOL.

Biden +6 in Arizona. He won by 0.3.

Election at Hand, Biden Leads Trump in Four Key States, Poll Shows (Published 2020)

 

I assume the underperform in 2020 is based on final poll average? Ok. But a bit of a stretch with 81 million votes and winning by 7 million. I’ll take that underperform and flipping two longtime red states every time.

But I’ll stipulate and make this point: Two things happened since then. Jan 6 and Roe. And trump certainly has lost some support over both of those. Which I think is a big part of Dem over performance since then.

Agree that national polling really doesn’t mean spit if it’s within a few points. But battlegrounds MI, WI and PA are winnable. So too NV and AZ. I think GA is lost barring huge turnout.

I’ve mostly been saying that the election hasn’t changed since the debate. Other than the uproar.

And trump can’t hide forever. The more he’s out there the more people remember just how awful he is in every way. And Dems are doing and surprisingly good job getting the turd of Project 2025 into the mainstream conversation. And people are pretty horrified by it.

 

He win Georgia and had the most votes in history and he under performed in an election with tremendous turnout on both sides and he under performed because polls said he did? My best to Putin.

 

That’s a helluva risky plan. You would need to win the three Rust Belt states plus the Omaha district to hit 270 on the nose. Absolutely no margin for error that way.

And Nevada has gone blue the last four presidential elections. The fact that it has been so shaky this time ought to have led to the campaign asking. Hard questions and retooling long before now.

 

According to the 1936 Literary Digest poll, Alf London really under performed.

 

You’re right on all points. But my question is, when was this ever not going to be close, no matter who’s running against trump?

I’m still mystified by his appeal. But it’s there no matter what. It’s a 50-50 country.

Reanimated Franklin Roosevelt could be running with resurrected John F Kennedy and it might be 51-49 Dems. Maybe.

 

Right it gets close at the end. But why leave yourself with only one path left so soon? (Fortunately I don’t think they are doing that.)

 

Polling was way off in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

 

Hope that Biden bows out during the GOP convention. Totally steal the thunder.

I also hope somebody hacks the video feed when Trump accepts the nomination, since he's not going to be in Milwaukee. Play an endless loop of his numerous mindless gaffes and a few of Stormy's highlight moments.

If course the 2020 polling was off. Nobody wanted to admit, even to a total stranger, that they were voting for Trump because it was so embarrassing.