2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

That rainmaker is going to produce considerable flooding. Latest report I saw said it will stall Tuesday into Wednesday over South Carolina and "rain for days" before heading into North Carolina up through the Piedmont.

 

Flooding is obviously bad, but it looks like that region could use the rain. Almost all of South Carolina is in some stage of drought. This ought to bust that up.

 

Time to hunker down along the Nature Coast. We’ve got a Cat 1.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/04/weather/florida-tropical-storm-debby-hurricane-sunday/index.html

 

Way down yonder?

 

So here in St. Petersburg, Florida it was a lot of rain...whole lotta rain. Not time to grab two of every animal and float away rain, but pretty damn close. And on the bright side the day after it's not too hot and there's a great breeze.

 

The big story about Hurricane Debby is going to be freshwater flooding far from its initial landfall location in Florida. From the National Hurricane Center:

"Across portions of southeast Georgia and South Carolina, 10 to 20 inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 30 inches, are expected through Friday morning. This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding."

 

Storm day was a success in our neighborhood.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...lantic-hurricane-season-forecast/74720790007/

In a revised forecast issued Thursday, the federal government still calls for an "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season, one that could rank among the busiest on record.
The updated seasonal outlook now calls for 17 to 24 named storms to form, of which 8 to 13 will spin up into hurricanes. (An average year sees 14 named storms, of which 7 are hurricanes.)

Overall, NOAA says there's a 90% chance of an above-average season, which is among the highest chances ever issued by the agency, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans told USA TODAY.

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane-season forecasts, slightly dialed back its predictions for the season compared with what it said earlier this year. The forecasting team, led by meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, now predicts 23 named storms will form, down from 25, with 12 becoming hurricanes.
Colorado State predicts six major hurricanes will form, which is one more than it forecast in April. A major hurricane is a Category 3 or above storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity.

 

My Dad lives in the Wilmington, N.C. area. Said the same thing. Said they’ve had 19 inches of rain, but the water table was so low in the first place, that it hasn’t been as bad as it could have been ... other than in low-lying areas that would get nailed anyway.

Of course the problem is now that the water table is back up … another tropical storm would be problematic.

 

The bigger problems were about an hour inland from Wilmington. Bladenboro was completely surrounded by water for a while yesterday. That area out 74 toward Lumberton is a flood zone waiting to happen even at the best of times.

 

Same with the Tar River. Most of Down East probably doesn't have more than 50 feet of elevation change from I-95 to Cape Hatteras, so water comes in but doesn't have a chance to flow back out. Rocky Mount is listed at 102 feet above sea level but that's right along the dropoff from the Piedmont, and Tarboro (at the other end of Edgecombe County) is at 43 feet.

 

Don’t look now. Storm off the Antilles is organizing. 70 percent chance of formation in 48 hours.

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook