2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Seven-day forecast is the better choice. Probable fish storm.

 

We got Hurricane Ernesto. Predicted to be major (briefly) by Friday. Thankfully a fish storm.

 

Bermuda has entered the chat.

 

Of course.

 

Here's how you reason with the hurricane season!

 

Come on, man.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...when-will-tropical-storms-return/74901103007/

Forecasters still expect this to be a ferocious hurricane season. Signs point to a stretch of heightened tropical activity incoming: "Large-scale environmental conditions look to get more conducive for tropical cyclone activity towards the end of August," the Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast team said in a new forecast released this week.

AccuWeather forecasters were even more specific in a forecast released Thursday: "AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva and the team of AccuWeather expert meteorologists are forecasting 6 to 10 named storms from Aug. 27 through Sept. 30," the team said.

 

Been awfully quiet in the Atlantic lately.

Too quiet.

 

Good Samaritan?

 

How do these predictions of hurricane activity hold up? I get most of my information from this thread, but it seems to me that over the last few years there have been predictions of a large number of hurricanes with great strength and it hasn't been the case. This year the hurricane in June was described as a harbinger for things to come.

 

I am a very good hurricane tracker, not a predictor. When an event starts, I've got my own barometers and weather stations, web cams, multiple apps, web sites, channels, satellites linking up in space, people I text, etc. that I check almost hourly. In other words, I'm on it. Heck, I take my own thermometers down and check ocean surface temps. I'm a hurricane geek. It's a love/hate relationship.
But the prediction part, to say there will be a storm over central Africa in three weeks that will develop, turn into a Cat 2 hurricane and hit Hahira, Ga. at 2 p.m. the following Tuesday, heck, I don't know.

 

I'm not talking about single storm systems, but season predictions. It seems to me that predictions of hurricane activity have missed the mark on the last few years.

 

Love the Force Thirteen guys on YouTube. Other than the Brit host, the rest sound like 10-year-old science geeks Snapchatting from their bedrooms.

They had the incredible live cams from Fort Myers and Sanibel for Ian. Riveting stuff.

As soon as I see any formation, I immediately search for their latest video.