President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

I’d be curious to see how many people betting on trump also invested in his worthless piece of shit social media site.

 

Exactly right.

However, unlike sports betting, which has a shit ton of crossover from fan to bettor, the person willing to bet on politics is nothing like the width and breadth of an electorate.

So I won't be using betting markets as any kind of barometer for a political race. It's interesting, but nothing like definitive. And in the way Forbes lazily and cynically used a minimal amount of data to get clicks, it's to be dismissed.

And while I'm on that soap box, it would be nice if sports entities would cool it on the betting line-being-definitive too.

I'm not telling you anything you don't know, Ragu, but not all betting demographics are the same in sports either. For example, if you get a team with a large fanbase, say, Kentucky basketball, playing against a team which a much smaller one, what do the oddsmakers want? They want action to be roughly 50-50 so they set their lines accordingly. They won't get that 50-50-ish split if you have a bunch of homer Kentucky fans betting for their team on a legitimate line, so the odds are skewed a skosh to sway some of the action, not necessarily as a reflection of what might actually occur in the game itself.

 

Not something I said but OK. Sure, trump can win. It’s going to be close. But it could be like putting money on Rory on the Sunday of a major.

Just because it’s their money doesn’t mean they aren’t morons.

 

I tend to put more faith in Polymarket and Predictit than polls because as Ragu says money is involved. I have no doubt Harris will win the popular vote but the electoral vote could be very close. Harris is leading in the general election question but not necessarily in the key swing states, and that will still determine the outcome.

Lots of people still think Trump will be better for their bank accounts and that is a key element in why they overlook all of his nonsense and hate speech.

 

I said I would be curious. So maybe back the fuck off.

 

It does no good to cheer for betting markets when it favors your candidate and trash them when it reverses. Just like all the people who swore the polls were trash from January-June are all about the numbers now that Harris has pulled ahead.

 

Keyboards and trumpet, here. When's the jam session?

 

So, SJ.com meet up at Bands of America Grand Nationals or some shit?

 

Theremin.