2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

I did have a Livingston (Ala) Saturday Night a couple of days ago.

 

Francine could hit Cat 2 by landfall because of the slow moving forward progress. Landfall does look like it will be in a sparsely-populated area. The flooding could be an issue in the Lafayette area based on the current track.

 

Hurricane Francine

 

Francine has about 24 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there
remains a possibility that dry air entrainment could continue to
reduce the intensification rate, the intensity forecast continues
to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on
the otherwise favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity
of 80 kt is at the high end of the intensity guidance.
Intensification is expected to stop near or just before landfall,
and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models
continue to show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h,
and the intensity forecast again follows that scenario.

 

I see an offshore oil rig reported a gust above 100 mph, but Francine doesn't appear to be much more than a Cat 1 right now. Again, rain more than wind will be the issue.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

 

Cat 2 at landfall in Terrebonne Parish.

 

Lots of folks without power which means refineries will be offline which means gas is going to spike if it lasts long.

 

I was stunned to the marrow that gas had dropped another two cents compared to yesterday. Usually the first hint of tropical weather in the central Gulf launches it skyward.

 

Francine looks like she wants to kick off her shoes and sit a spell 'round the Mid-South.

Drought over.

 

Since when is it gubment’s job to fill all the sandbags? That’s always been priced in as what you do as part of river life, if only because the manpower to cover everything in a flood zone would be a logistical nightmare to coordinate from a single source.