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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Driftwood, Mar 16, 2024.

Page 24 of 66
  1. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    One of my best friends from high school is a TV meteorologist in Panama City Beach and I can tell when something's coming by his Facebook posts popping on my feed more than usual. He's gonna have a week, it appears.
     
    playthrough, Sep 23, 2024
    #277
    franticscribe, Driftwood, maumann and 1 other person like this.
  2. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    Latest prediction has it as a hurricane Thursday at 2 a.m. and a major hurricane by 2 p.m., with the Big Bend area under threat.
     
    Driftwood, Sep 23, 2024
    #278
    Liut likes this.
  3. maumann

    maumann Well-Known Member

    Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe and Apalachicola have all been hit hard recently. If this strays east of there, Carabelle, Panacea (ironic) and Wakulla would be not good places to be. And Tallahassee is a lot closer to the Gulf than most people believe.

    Not to say there's any really good place for a hurricane to hit, but east of Tally in the Big Bend between Monticello and Madison might impact the fewest residents.

    But it's going to tear up the Panhandle, no doubt. And I'm following Marty's advice some 500 miles north of there. We'll have the bathtub full and everything charged because I'm assuming a better than 50-50 chance of losing power when the wind hits. Our pines have a tendency to find power lines upon which to fall.

    The crews were still clearing trees on I-75 between Valdosta and Lake City about this time last year when I went down to buy the fifth wheel in The Villages.
     
    maumann, Sep 23, 2024
    #279
    Baron Scicluna, Liut, franticscribe and 2 others like this.
  4. 2muchcoffeeman

    2muchcoffeeman Well-Known Member

    I'm well east (for now) of the cone, but I'm still assuming we're going to get some wind and a shitload of rain on Thursday.
     
    2muchcoffeeman, Sep 23, 2024
    #280
  5. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    upload_2024-9-23_20-1-44.jpeg
     
    Neutral Corner, Sep 23, 2024
    #281
  6. Twirling Time

    Twirling Time Well-Known Member

    They called this before the storm even formed. This is next-level stuff.
     
    Twirling Time, Sep 23, 2024
    #282
    MileHigh likes this.
  7. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    They're predicting that it will strengthen to Cat 3.

     
    Neutral Corner, Sep 24, 2024
    #283
  8. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    I'm still a stiff breeze east of the eastern edge of the cone. Let's keep it that way.
     
    BTExpress, Sep 24, 2024
    #284
  9. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    Marty Merzer:

    "It is imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in the future."

    One more alert before I leave matters of track, intensity, timing and danger to hurricane specialists at the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center, meteorologists at your local National Weather Service offices, and local emergency managers.

    This portion of the 11 a.m. Helene discussion from NHC forecaster Robbie Berg is important:

    "The track guidance is very tightly clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence. However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in the future."

    Translation: Helene does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation. The forecasts, and the models on which they are based, are estimating where that center is and where it will be. Even a relatively small change in where that center actually forms could dramatically alter Helene's forecast track.

    What I'm saying is, the NHC is telling everyone not only around Tallahassee but also along the eastern and central Gulf Coast to take this seriously - and not to be surprised (and unfairly critical) if the track forecast changes markedly over the next 24-36 hours or so.
     
    MileHigh, Sep 24, 2024
    #285
  10. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    There have been quick-forming hurricanes before and there have been major hurricanes before. But offhand I don’t remember storms falling into both buckets so frequently before the last 5-7 years. I’m probably wrong but still find it disturbing.
     
    dixiehack, Sep 24, 2024
    #286
    franticscribe and Driftwood like this.
  11. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    NHC still has the heavy rain on Friday morning hanging a left at Atlanta.
    A guy on YouTube I follow has it going more easterly over @maumann, across the SC Upstate and NC Piedmont.
     
    Driftwood, Sep 24, 2024
    #287
    maumann likes this.
  12. Batman

    Batman Well-Known Member

    From what I've seen, this storm will be very wide. The tropical storm force winds, assuming a Tallahassee area landfall, are forecast to range from New Orleans to Miami. So a jog of even 50 miles in either direction is going to change who gets some effects.
     
    Batman, Sep 24, 2024
    #288
    Liut and Driftwood like this.
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