2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

The worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay was mapped out a few years ago:

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/...s-tampa-bays-devastating-worst-case-scenario/

 

It's time for me to go back to Montana.

 

That not only puts Frog Creek in the eye wall but the east side of it. Hello, Progressive? I'm about to file a claim.

We are no more than a couple of miles from the Manatee Hillsborough county line.

 

I've been monitoring this "front" just locally in hopes that it'll finally bring proper fall, and it gets weaker every time I refresh my weather app. From a thousand miles away, I bear bad news for the Bay Area.

 

As recently as 48 hours ago, I posted that the NHC wasn't paying much attention to this storm. It was just supposed to be a rain maker.
Fast forward to now, and it's apocalyptic. Good grief, things can escalate quickly.

 

My grandfather - a WWII veteran, mind you - used to talk about Hazel with a thousand yard stare in his eyes as if it was the only hurricane that ever mattered.

It remains the only hurricane to do serious damage to his beloved Greensboro and it wasn't until Fran in '96 that we had another one do serious damage in any part of the Piedmont. Fran really hammered the Triangle more than the Triad.

I didn't live through Hazel, but I have been through Fran, Floyd, Matthew and a few other doozies. My perception a week out is that Helene was far worse - and of those Floyd was the one that was worst for me personally as I was living down east at the time.

 

I never lived on a coast* but the worst tropical storm I ever endured was Bill in 2015. Bad news is it wrecked my roof and I was set back $4K in deductible. Good news is I was the first in my cul-de-sac to get 25-year architectural!

* For a few years as a kid I did live in Baton Rouge and Morgan City in the definite danger zone but not directly on the coast. My mom told me before how Camille scared her spitless but veered away at the last minute.

 

I recommend this book.

 

Newest guidance shows the track has moved slightly south, now landfall near Pass-A-Grille Beach and Fort DeSoto, which would take the eye right over downtown St. Pete and then MacDill AFB. That's not good.

The forecast discussion now has the storm intensity up to 120 mph, with the models showing a possibility of anything from Cat 1 to Cat 5. That's not good.

Even though there may be rapid de-intensification, Orlando is going to get socked as well. So we're talking about around 10 million residents possibly with complete or severe property damage. They may be able to get out but there may be little to come home to.

Praying for the people of central Florida.

 

Unless it dwindles out, I don't see a way that Milton doesn't wreak havoc on Florida. Even if it jogs a little north or south, it's still going to hit somewhere.