2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

I pray this works out.

 

No outing?

 

I have two elderly aunts who live in Wesley Chapel, about 25 miles north of Tampa and maybe 30 miles from the coast so storm surge shouldn't be an issue.
One of them texted my sister tonight, though, that they are "only expecting strong winds."
That's like saying you're going to see a monkey in New York the night King Kong comes to town.

 

Let me add if you evacuate to the Midwest, folks don't care if you're blue or red. Green or purple. Or Black.
They want to help you.

 

Hey, @Liut.

Was texting with Scott this afternoon. I think Plan A is Savannah, although I know he didn't want to go that far up the coast. The way the storm appears to be playing out, south Florida isn't a bad Plan B but they want upwards of $400 a night for hotel rooms in Fort Lauderdale area. His wife is a teacher with Brevard County Schools and last I heard, they were trying to leave tomorrow AM. So Mom and Dad will take their van to Scott's -- it's full of gas -- and Scott, Lisa or son Greg will drive it with whatever other vehicles they're taking.

I saw the traffic cams for I-75 around the East Bay today. Like rush hour traffic -- or April 1 for snowbirds -- heading north. Not sure where all those people are going to wind up, especially hearing that many gas stations are out of fuel.

I'm about to check the latest advisory on NHC. I was watching YouTube channel for Force 13 -- a bunch of young but brilliant meterologists. They think the posted track is farther north than what they're seeing. I sure hope a bunch of 16 year olds are right this time!

 

At this point, with I-75 North a parking lot but South Florida expected to escape the worst, is it better to go south? Or is it still going to be bad in Miami?

 

Upthread I mentioned my buddy who is in Florida’s emergency management community. He made this very solid point on Facebook.

 

The last two NHC tracks have been inching south a bit. NHC also has been adding this note to their discussion today:

Is there some brewing Civil War between the "model predicted fields" and the "model trackers"? And who/what are they?

 

Well, there are competing computer models. Here's a page listing them all.

NHC Track and Intensity Models

The NHC normally relies on AVNO/AVNI, plus some sort of average between the other models. However, the European model and the Canadian model are showing the potential landfall south of the AVNO right now.

Usually as the storm gets closer to land and more data is fed into the computers, all of the models begin to converge. I'm hoping they converge closer to the Europeans and Canadians right now, because at 10 p.m., AVNO has the center of Milton going down U.S. 41 in Palmetto, which is the road my RV park parallels.

My fifth wheel is sitting at 27.59N, 82.54W, according to Google Maps.

These are the coordinates that make me very uneasy:

48H 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W 110 KT 125 MPH

I'm certain the center of a hurricane is an amazing sight, if you somehow live to see it. But nothing will be left on the property in 125 mph sustained winds. There are perhaps 20 or 30 massive live oaks (including the one 15 feet from the front door) that will be uprooted. Even the concrete block bathrooms will be foundations in a direct hit

 

Going to bed. Will check in with you in the morning. Best regards ... and wishes.

 

And, of course, the worst stuff will be coming right at midnight.

 

Even if this thing heads straight for St. Pete, won’t everything below there on the Gulf Coast down to the Everglades still be in deep shit on the dirty side?