President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

47 percent is relative. He gained 11 million voters between 2016 and 2020 but only gained about 0.4 percent of the voter share. If he keeps his 2020 voters, Harris needs to maintain Biden’s margins. If Harris gets south of 80 million (and it’s likely she will), you need Trump to lose an equal share.

Trump could lose ground in the popular vote, but gain in percentage share.

Your real hope is Democrats turn out in similar numbers, independents break in similar numbers and/or Republicans don’t show up in worse numbers.

 

If you're correct, round 'em up and put them away. After that, run an ad making clear who put them up to this. Should work for three weeks.

 

x.com

 

All those old white presidents look alike

 

FFS, America! Trump lost the 2020 election BEFORE:

-January 6th
-His legal liability in a sexual abuse case
-Stealing tons of classified docs AND stashing them in laughably unsecured locations
-we found out Gen. Milley said Trump was fascist to his core.

 

I'm sure he hasn't gained anything beyond 47%. But Harris 49.5%, Trump 47%, Stein 3.5% isn't going to win 270 EVs. This is shaping up much like 2016, with Harris maybe winning 1-2 more states than Clinton.

 

Gives a new meaning to “red states”.


https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1845592209350930778?s=46&t=UH_wsfZqbkE5nNxvKsFjZw

 

That's the fried foods/sausage gravy/sweet tea zone!

 

I believe most polls still rely heavily on reaching people by phone. With the rise in phone scams and spams, I never answer a call from a number I don't know -- if it's important they can leave a voice mail. I even have set the VM to pickup after five rings because most robodialers hang up after four.
Add to that "feedback fatigue." I recently got a text from my gastroenterologist asking how they did with my recent colonoscopy. I dunno, I was asleep. I didn't end up in the ER with a punctured colon, so I guess it went OK. But I'm tired of getting review requests after every transaction. If you want my opinion, show me the money, baby!
I think a sizable portion of households think and behave like me. So, a lot of those people are escaping the pollsters' net.

 

They don't.

 

That’s not exactly reassuring about the accuracy of polls.

 

I haven’t seen any indication Stein is pulling anywhere close to 3.5%. But yeah, if that happens it’s a problem.