NFL Week 6 -- This Seat is for Sale(h)

I assure you Mayonnaise Boy sucked in other, less camera-friendly ways.

 

They wear blue so much anymore that it’s hardly remarkable. It is a pretty sharp look.

 

You know, the Raiders make enough plays to win, but being -10 in turnover differential this early in the season, dead last with three to spare, will guarantee you results like yesterday. Two TOs inside their own 20 and one on the goal line. That's a 21 point swing.

 

I saw a CBS mock draft today that had the Titans picking an EDGE. Bwhahahahahahahahha.

 

Interesting to parse the 4-2 teams in the NFC.

Washington -- .292 strength of victory right now, .476 strength of remaining schedule (20th)
Chicago -- .182 SOV, .629 SORS (1st)
Tampa Bay -- .591 SOV, .469 SORS (22nd)
Atlanta -- .435 SOV, .500 SORS (t15)
Green Bay -- .318 SOV, .597 SORS (3rd)

So, yeah, the Bears have been a nice story, but the bill is coming due soon.

If we parse it down to the NFC East, Philly has one of the weakest schedules in the league remaining, as they still get Carolina, Jacksonville, the Rams, and the Giants twice. Out of division, the only tough games left are Baltimore, Pittsburgh and (if you squint) Cincy.

I don't think the NFC East will get two in this year, so the Washington-Philly games will be massive, and the Commanders damn near beat the Eagles twice with a 4-13 team last year.

 

I actually think the Jets would take less than a third just to move on from this disaster and pass the problem to someone else. The issue is no one really knows what Reddick's issue is. CAA and the Jets had agreed to a one-year deal and Reddick decided to axe the deal, so CAA fired him. Is he just not going to play without guaranteed money next year?

 

After the first two games I thought the Saints were this year's sneaky-good NFC team. Now I'm thinking it's Tampa. That team is pretty good and, as you pointed out, has navigated the hardest part of its schedule. These next four weeks are tough (Ravens, Falcons, at Chiefs, 49ers), but three of those are at home, they get a bye in Week 11, and then the rest is relatively easy looking at the current state and trajectory of those teams.
If the Bucs can go 2-2 in these next four games, I can definitely see them winning the South and getting to 12 wins. Not sure if that'll be enough to get the No. 1 seed over the Vikings or Lions, but it might.

 

I was chatting with someone that's down on the NFL QB play right now...For starters he's an Eagles fan and I'm sure yesterday's game against the Browns wasn't visually pleasing to anyone that wants to see good QB play right now, although Hurts has shown in the past that he is plenty capable.

But is the situation that bad in the league? Maybe we're lacking some top-end elite guys, but I like some of the young arms in there. Caleb Williams is starting to stack good performances together. Jayden Daniels has looked great and even played well in a loss to the Ravens yesterday. Drake Maye is going to struggle with a horrible team around him, but he showed he can whip the ball a little bit. I like what I've seen from Jordan Love. C.J. Stroud is a top five QB in the keague. Still not sold on Bo Nix, but he shows signs.

One of the issues is that a lot of the top QB picks from 2015 forward, guys that should be in their prime and carrying the league, haven't panned out, or have taken more time than expected or just have hit some walls in their development. Going through the 2015-today drafts and just looking at the first-round QBs.


2015
Jameis Winston (1) is a well-traveled backup that was too wild to be a consistent starter.

Marcus Mariota (2) has been a backup because physically he couldn't hold up in the NFL.

2016
Jared Goff (1) got off to a good start, hit a wall, bounced back to a Pro Bowl in a new location.

Carson Wentz (2) played at an MVP level early in his career, had a bad injury, never recovered physically or mentally.

2017
Mitchell Trubisky (2) is basically a bust, I think he's a backup in the league somewhere.

Patrick Mahomes (10)...well nothing much to say here, he probably is too blinded by his Super Bowl rings to read it anyway.

Deshaun Watson (12) was very good for a while, but we know what happened there and he would be a marginal backup right now if his contract didn't demand he be a starter.

2018
Baker Mayfield (1) had his ups and downs in Cleveland, moved around and has found his game in Tampa Bay at or near a Pro Bowl level.

Sam Darnold (3) busted out early, stayed in the league as a backup, he's had a bit of a revival in Minnesota, but after his last game, I'm not ready to annoint him as "back".

Josh Allen (7) struggled in his first two years and has become one of the best in the league

Lamar Jackson (32): Multi-time MVP winner, one of the best in the league.

2019
Kyler Murray (1): Good, not great. The Cardinals are horrible without him and competitive enough with him. I guess he's a fringe top-half QB in the league on a really bad team with no direction.

Daniel Jones (6): One good season, probably safe to label him as a bust or close to it.

Dwayne Haskins (15): Unfortunately Haskins died in traffic incident. He was not heading on a good trajectory.

2020
Joe Burrow (1): I think Burrow is still around a top ten QB with room to improve when he's healthy.

Tua Tagovailoa (5): When he's healthy he's probably top 15, but injuries and availability will keep him from being in a higher tier.

Justin Herbert (6): Great arm talent, maybe the best in this group, but the production has been spotty. I think he should succeed with Harbaugh. Book is still out on him.

Jordan Love (26): Developing into a fine QB, definitely on an upward trajectory.

2021
Trevor Lawrence (1): I feel like Lawrence still hasn't shown his best self and I wonder if and when it's going to come. He's good enough to win with, but I think want to see more.

Zach Wilson (2): Overdrafted and looking very much like a bust.

Trey Lance (3): I saw some good signs before the injury. I think he'll need to find a place that can give him a shot.

Justin Fields (11): Probably a top 20-ish QB. I think he's not a long-term starter, but a guy that can hang around in the league.

Mac Jones (15): Lack of physical talent will probably keep him from being a starter, but I think he'll make good clipboard money before becoming an ESPN college football broadcast guy.

2022
Kenny Pickett (20): Probably overdrafted and lacks physical talent, but will hang around as a backup.

2023
Bryce Young (1): Is he done already? Undersized and already very beaten up. It's going to take someone really investing in his development for Young's career to recover.

C.J. Stroud (2): I think he's a clear top 5-7 QB in the NFL right now. He's got everything you want in a franchise quarterback.

2024
Caleb Williams (1): Starting to stack good performances together, looks like the real deal. Physically he can do anything you ask.

Jayden Daniels (2): Probably going to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Tremendous tools.

Drake Maye (3): Great physical talent. The Patriots will need to build a competitive roster around him.

Michael Penix Jr. (8): Watching and learning.

J.J. McCarthy (10): Watching, learning and rehabbing

Bo Nix (12): He's had some poor stat lines, but he's also shown some promising signs.


So that's 32 quarterbacks (really 31 considering Haskins' fate) with three (Mahomes, Jackson, Allen) that I think we can unanimously say are at an elite level. Mahomes could retire today and be a first-ballot guy obviously. There's an argument that Stroud is in that group too. I think Love is close to that level.

There's a nice group of QBs (Goff, Mayfield, Burrow...maybe even Lawrence) that can win playoff games. And 6-8 QBs that still have plenty of room to improve and get to a higher level.

The 2019 and 2021 classes really drag the overall group down.

The QB situation in the league isn't bad and I think it's going to be a lot better in two years. There haven't been too many times in the NFL when half the teams had QBs you wanted to see. It's a hard position to succeed at and a lot of team don't have good enough personnel to make it happen.
'

 

I wouldn’t be mad at that considering how dog dick terrible the QB draft this spring is expected to be.

 

I'd add Josh Rosen from 2018, Happy. Arguably as big a bust as anyone on that list.

 

I don’t think you have to worry about tiebreakers with the Washington team. They look like the only decent team in the division.

 

Accidentally scanned right past him. Atrocious bust. Did he last three years in the NFL?