President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Oh, he's absolutely in this and very well could win it.

While it's not quantifiable, I also believe that we are at a historic level of disengagement when it comes to the voting population. There are so many people who will show up to the polls who simply have not been paying attention to the news. They will vote entirely based on how they feel, especially financially.

As far as the polls go, I think the high quality pollsters are doing the best they can to objectively gauge and project what the electorate will look like, but I think they are going to come up short. I just don't know which way that pendulum will swing.

Will more Black and Latino voters actually go for Trump this time around? Or will it end up being a red herring? Will white, suburban women quietly break for Harris in a higher than projected number once they're in the private confines of a voting booth? Or will they stay home?

My current projection, based entirely on my inexperienced read of polls and rudimentary analysis of the campaigns, is that Trump will close the popular vote gap in traditionally blue states like New York, Illinois, and California. But Harris' get-out-the-vote efforts will lead to a series of narrow victories in key battleground states.

I think the map ends up looking like this:


I think Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and surprisingly Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Florida are decided by 3% points or less.

And I think we have sheer fucking chaos afterward as Trump, Musk, and others on the far right sow doubt, fear, and illegitimacy in the results.

 

I've never said he isn't in it. I absolutely know he could flip those swing states, and that's what matters obviously.

Just pointing out there is no logical way the national race is close. Maybe it is within the extreme margins of error, but if so it leans Harris.

 

I think this is the most likely result. Nevada is the only one I think she could flip out of this scenario.

Florida is the only one here that could be a "shocker" There's enough ballot issues -- Dobbs / weed -- that could be a difference. I don't count whatever rumblings are in Alaska to be a shocker because the EVs are negligable.

 

It likely won’t be close in raw votes. Hillary Clinton was only like 2.1 percent ahead of Trump but that translated into a nearly three million vote advantage (and a set of steak knives). But percentage wise this could absolutely be close.

I think there could be a relative surge of white women voters seeking to avenge Roe and that can make up for the erosion of younger voters or African Americans or Hispanics. But it can’t fill all of those holes simultaneously.

She can still win the race, but she will have to find a way to change the momentum and not just rely on people who have spent a decade not caring that Trump is an evil clown to start caring in the last two weeks (if they haven’t already voted early and locked her out of their vote).

 

I think politically we're at a point where all elections are going to be percentagewise close. You just don't have enough people crossing the aisle so to speak, even with crazy candidates. So in that regard, that's where I said it could be within the margin of error but favors Harris and probably significantly so.

Biden won by about 5 percent nationally in 2020. But it wasn't close by any measure other than that percentage. I still don't see any way the national vote is closer than that. I actually think it will be more in favor for Harris, but even if it's the same that's why I really believe the national polls are flawed.

 

Five pages behind, so could be a d_b, but a reminder that the guy with the broom in this commercial is the late, great John Amos. Good times ...

 

Two of the others are Johnny Haymer (Sgt. Zelmo Zale from M*A*S*H) and Robert Ridgely (four Mel Brooks movies and Boogie Nights).

 

Shut the duck up Donny

 

The best summation of America 2016 to present I’ve read:

How Alarmed Should We Be If Trump Wins Again?

 

I just keep telling myself that the only polls that matter are the ones on November 5. Everything else is just noise. I’ve found myself occasionally slapping myself on the wrist when I’ve looked at polls from Real Clear Politics because I keep reminding myself of the above.

I’m voting wholeheartedly for Harris, can’t stand MAGA and think the GOP shouldn’t ever be forgiven for both the Iraq War and Jan. 6. But I’m finding myself being more annoyed than ever about politics.

Maybe it’s because I’m getting older, and looking things more long term. Maybe it’s because I’m tired of being told I have to be constantly outraged, especially by a lot of little shit that doesn’t even affect me directly. More likely, it’s because I’m tired of having to fill my recycling can with the same political flyers that I barely look at. I’ve had days when I get a dozen flyers.

My state is deep blue for the presidential election, but I’m in one of the most purple Congressional districts that there is and the district next to us is also just as purple. We’re in a highly educated area, so the GOPers will normally vote their party line, but know that they better not act crazy or they’ll get booted quickly. But this also means a hyperactive election season.

I’ve had some volunteers knock at my door. I try to tell myself that they’re just volunteers; we generally are in agreement on the issues, and they’re trying their best. Even though I’d rather not talk to them.

Maybe I’m getting more cranky because a couple of weeks ago, one young woman came to my door, we chatted a few minutes, then I noticed another young woman below my steps on the sidewalk with their phone out and videotaping us. I hadn’t given permission to be taped, and if I was still in newspapers, that might have caused a big problem with newspaper company ethics rules on political activity. I didn’t say anything, but I felt my privacy was a little violated. I again reminded myself that these were two young women whose hearts are in the right place, but probably didn’t know any better.

November 5 can’t get here soon enough.

 

I love that, Baron.

And I'll add my little piece -- I'm extremely tired of being told that if I feel a lot of this little shit doesn't affect me directly, I'm a bad person for not wringing my hands over it.

I spent four years holding my nose and living my life. Anyone can disagree, but I know I can do it again. I don't want to, but I can.

 

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