President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

BTExpress · Oct 21, 2024 at 9:02 AM

dixiehack said: ↑

It likely won’t be close in raw votes. Hillary Clinton was only like 2.1 percent ahead of Trump but that translated into a nearly three million vote advantage (and a set of steak knives). But percentage wise this could absolutely be close.

I think there could be a relative surge of white women voters seeking to avenge Roe and that can make up for the erosion of younger voters or African Americans or Hispanics. But it can’t fill all of those holes simultaneously.

She can still win the race, but she will have to find a way to change the momentum and not just rely on people who have spent a decade not caring that Trump is an evil clown to start caring in the last two weeks (if they haven’t already voted early and locked her out of their vote).
Click to expand...

Hillary's national vote advantage in 2016 was basically California.

The other 49 states were 50/50.

In this election, the other 49 states may break slightly for Trump.

Inky_Wretch · Oct 21, 2024 at 9:13 AM

Baron Scicluna said: ↑

I just keep telling myself that the only polls that matter are the ones on November 5. Everything else is just noise. I’ve found myself occasionally slapping myself on the wrist when I’ve looked at polls from Real Clear Politics because I keep reminding myself of the above.

I’m voting wholeheartedly for Harris, can’t stand MAGA and think the GOP shouldn’t ever be forgiven for both the Iraq War and Jan. 6. But I’m finding myself being more annoyed than ever about politics.

Maybe it’s because I’m getting older, and looking things more long term. Maybe it’s because I’m tired of being told I have to be constantly outraged, especially by a lot of little shit that doesn’t even affect me directly. More likely, it’s because I’m tired of having to fill my recycling can with the same political flyers that I barely look at. I’ve had days when I get a dozen flyers.

My state is deep blue for the presidential election, but I’m in one of the most purple Congressional districts that there is and the district next to us is also just as purple. We’re in a highly educated area, so the GOPers will normally vote their party line, but know that they better not act crazy or they’ll get booted quickly. But this also means a hyperactive election season.

I’ve had some volunteers knock at my door. I try to tell myself that they’re just volunteers; we generally are in agreement on the issues, and they’re trying their best. Even though I’d rather not talk to them.

Maybe I’m getting more cranky because a couple of weeks ago, one young woman came to my door, we chatted a few minutes, then I noticed another young woman below my steps on the sidewalk with their phone out and videotaping us. I hadn’t given permission to be taped, and if I was still in newspapers, that might have caused a big problem with newspaper company ethics rules on political activity. I didn’t say anything, but I felt my privacy was a little violated. I again reminded myself that these were two young women whose hearts are in the right place, but probably didn’t know any better.

November 5 can’t get here soon enough.
Click to expand...

jr/shotglass said: ↑

I love that, Baron.

And I'll add my little piece -- I'm extremely tired of being told that if I feel a lot of this little shit doesn't affect me directly, I'm a bad person for not wringing my hands over it.

I spent four years holding my nose and living my life. Anyone can disagree, but I know I can do it again. I don't want to, but I can.
Click to expand...

Those are understandable positions. But my outrage remains on a low simmer for one reason - I have a 15-year-old daughter.

I'm not worried about my future. I'm worried about how the next four years will affect her and the rest of her life.

BitterYoungMatador2 · Oct 21, 2024 at 9:13 AM

He wins again, I'm basically treating this the way I treated the Kevin Stallings hire at Pitt. If he screws up the economy with tariffs, I'm looking at the people I know voted for him or didn't vote for a president at all and saying, "don't bitch to me. You wanted this. Jump in and swim."

Starman · Oct 21, 2024 at 9:26 AM

A common theme among MAGA Nation is that he is going to "settle all scores."
"Voting against him might be very dangerous. And not only voting."

Hermes · Oct 21, 2024 at 9:31 AM

Yep, if I didn’t have a five-year old, I’d have checked out completely. But I do.

Songbird · Oct 21, 2024 at 9:47 AM

Kamala's going to win.

North Carolina. Pennsy, Wisconsin, Minnesota, likely Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, maybe Nevada.

Women, White Men for Kamala, and a goodly amount of 18-35's carry the day.

Neutral Corner · Oct 21, 2024 at 10:22 AM

Azrael · Oct 21, 2024 at 10:52 AM

Songbird said: ↑

Kamala's going to win.
Click to expand...

Maybe.

But for me at least the damage is done, and feels irreparable.

For a long time it was possible to believe most Americans were mostly good - and had mostly good intentions. Then Trump, and the last nine+ years.

Gopnik notwithstanding, Trump is an inoperable cancer on the body politic. A cancer for which many millions of my neighbors continue to vote. A cancer they have embraced.

Good luck to us all.

UNCGrad · Oct 21, 2024 at 10:34 AM

Some really good posts the last day or so on here. Agreed on a lot of them, including the Trump trending up ones. I think every presidential election for the rest of our lives will be nail-bitingly close.

This, again from Harry Enten, explains a few things and gives some Harris hope. It's all about the margins.

Slacker · Oct 21, 2024 at 10:37 AM

On that sunny day when his funeral finally arrives, I might watch
if they play "YMCA" and "Cold November Rain" on the teevee again.

Neutral Corner · Oct 21, 2024 at 10:45 AM

Neutral Corner · Oct 21, 2024 at 10:48 AM

Log in or Sign up

President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

BTExpress Well-Known Member

Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

BitterYoungMatador2 Well-Known Member

Starman Well-Known Member

Hermes Well-Known Member

Songbird Well-Known Member

Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

Azrael Well-Known Member

UNCGrad Well-Known Member

Slacker Well-Known Member

Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

BTExpress Well-Known Member

Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

BitterYoungMatador2 Well-Known Member

Starman Well-Known Member

Hermes Well-Known Member

Songbird Well-Known Member

Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

Azrael Well-Known Member

UNCGrad Well-Known Member

Slacker Well-Known Member

Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

Share This Page

Useful Searches