President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

You were.

How is it any different than Texas -1100 vs. Vanderbilt? That's not predictive of the likely result?

Sure, somebody could drop a million bucks on Vandy, but he can't score any touchdowns.

The line is what it is because people WANT to make money and try to make the smartest bet they think they can make to win some money.

 

E-coli breakout at McDonald's. Trump ruins everything he touches.

 

Early GOP turnout means fewer GOP votes on election day. The opposite of wat happened in 2020, when GOPers were told not to vote early.

 

No, my point is that big bets influence the odds, and the odds are this not predictive in the way a poll can be. The one that's most skewed, Polymarket, sets it up as "investors indicate 60 (number used as example) percent chance of Trump victory" which is wildly out of whack with the data we have now. It also only excepts bets in Bitcoin, so it isn't legal for US gamblers. A Financial Times story found three or four whales were driving the whole market. If you think those whales might be living in Beijing or St. Petersburg, you might be on to something.

 

Not necessarily. It could be an overall increase in turnout.

 

Sure, it could. Just presenting an alternate theory.

 

Fine. I am not arguing your points.

But it was Kamala -130 2 months ago.

 

If elections are perceived to be close, that usually drives up turnout because people figure their vote is more important as a possible difference-maker.

 

When can one get the kind of generals that Hitler had?

 

She's going to win, pulling away in the 4th.

 

Trump obviously as unaware of WW2 history as of anything else, or he'd know Hitler had the kind of generals that tried to kill him. What he meant was "when can we get the kind of Hitler's generals I saw in Warner Bros. movies"