President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

The results have been baked in for months. Any "movement" in the polls right now is sheer noise in the system. I can run multiple simulations of any set of variables and wind up with different outcomes. When you're talking about a margin of error of 3-5 percent, that can make a huge difference in a poll result where the current difference is 2 percent or less in every swing state.

It's a coin flip (although I still believe Harris voters are being under-represented in swing state polls because they aren't as vocal as Trumpists), so sometimes you'll get 51 heads from 100 flips and sometimes 51 tails. Even 538 shows Harris with way more decisive electoral college victories, while Trump's road to victory is basically narrowed down to having the right states flip in his favor. There are very few outcomes in which Trump wins in a landslide because he's nowhere close to a majority nationwide and will need a plurality just to win any of the seven swing stats.

I'm sorry, but the idea of huge numbers of voters suddenly changing their minds one way or the other in the past week/month is ludicrous, because there haven't been high numbers of undecided voters since Harris was nominated. Anybody "undecided" today isn't going to vote.

Women's rights and Trump fatigue are real issues that pollsters are having a difficult time forecasting. Suburban women came out big for Biden in 2020. Unless they have issues with a woman President, I don't see why they'd switch back to Trump four years later. The country is plain and simple tired of hearing about the guy.

The media is fostering all these "dangerous scenarios for Democrats" because they need people to tune in. Just because there are 300,000 Arab voters in Michigan doesn't automatically mean Trump somehow has some perceived advantage. He's more neck deep up Netanyahu's ass than any Democrats.

Same with the concern over 18-24 men. If they actually voted in large numbers, it might be an issue, but they traditionally don't. Who does? Old people and women. And Harris is holding her own in those two groups, because the GOP is bound and determined to screw up Social Security and take away women's reproductive rights.

I'm seeing massive pre-Election Day turnout in Georgia (and a decidedly large majority of women voters), with more than 28 percent of registered voters already banked. I won't portend to know if that's a good or bad sign, but traditionally record turnout leans heavily Democratic. I'm watching the rural/urban mix carefully, because that's a definite giveaway as to where support is coming from.

Despite all that, Trump could win. But the polls will have nothing to do with it.

 

Given Trump’s Arnold Palmer story, I’m kind of shocked he cut back on meat inspectors a few years ago.

 

She's going to thrash him. He has zero chance to win Georgia.

He ain't winning North Carolina.

She's winning most of the Blue Walls.

 

Harris is going to win. I think her support is being way undercounted, and I do think many women who seem like they are voting for Trump to keep the peace at home will flip in the privacy of the ballot box. The silent majority will be on our side this time.

And once again, the women of America will save us from that asshole.

 

I think it's actually more likely that she sweeps the blue wall states and loses Georgia/Nevada et al.

 

When abortion rights have been on the ballot — whether by referendum or proxy candidate — pro-choice has outperformed polling since Dobbs. And make no mistake, reproductive rights are on the top of the ballot.

 

Honestly, in this new era, some of the best analyses I feel I have seen have been on TikTok. A lot of interesting things on there that aren't mainstream media. And I know we are mostly all media supporters, but with all the polling nonsense (and who knows, maybe it is right), I just feel there is this push to keep everything tight and interesting to keep everyone consuming.

Anyway, a few of the main takeaways I have seen is the Harris campaign has been very quiet about polls. The assumption here is that one, they know they are winning, and two, they don't want to say that to make people complacent so that they still vote.

A recent thing that has been of interest is that Harris is going to Texas on Friday. It is pretty curious when you think about it. Why Texas and why take time away from swing states at this point? Some people think it is because she has an outside chance there or things have gotten tight enough that why not (probably not likely), to stump for the Senate race, and to clearly talk abortion. The latter is to push that key talking point across the board, but also back into the swing states. And to fall back on all of it, they know they are winning so they can take the chance at rallying in Texas.

 

The kids are turning Texas ... at least to the point where they bounce Cancun Cruz. He's out; 20'll make you 100.

 

I think the Houston stop is all about getting out the vote there in the burbs for Allred. I do think Harris can get at least to where Biden was in 2020 in Texas (he lost by about 5 points). Maybe even a bit better. But I personally can't see a win there. Or Florida, though I think Florida is a better potential stunning upset for Harris than Texas (and I doubt she wins Florida either).

I think the chats with Liz Cheney are smart, though some seem puzzled by them. That's all about Haley voters, who were still voting for her over trump 15-18% even after she dropped out. Half of them will come home to trump. That leaves 7-9% up for grabs. Get most of them, or if they don't vote, that wins in swing states.

 

I raise my cup of espresso to both of you.

 

More people than I’m comfortable with are coming out of the closet as Trump supporters. A few I’m genuinely shocked by. Suburban white moms mostly who have fallen for the scare stories that illegals are coming to rape and kill their daughters and believe that he alone can fix it. It’s mind-boggling. I’m thankful that most of them live in solid blue states but a few don’t and it makes me wonder how many more of them there are. I also know more than a few very religious Black women who won’t vote for Kamala because they are pro-life. That’s why I’m feeling discouraged.