President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

I’m still trying to decide if Harris holding her Houston rally in a soccer stadium is a good or bad thing. It should score points with the soccer moms, but might give the NFL bros something to whine about.

 

Since they'll be on the same stage, can we get a duet with Beyonce and Willie Nelson tonight at the Harris rally?

 

WaPost joins the "no endorsement" club.

 

They don't want to be dragged into prison camps in January. Team Fatfuck is taking names.

 

One more set of observations, this time about 538:

1. Whether it's to account for the Republican undercount in previous polls -- or just to make it seem closer for clicks -- Nate seems to be skewing the results of the swing states in an effort to make the race look closer than it perhaps really is. For example, individual non-partisan state polls for Michigan show Harris consistently with a 2-3 percent margin among likely voters, which would correlate closely with the senate race. But Nate has it listed as "even/+1." Same with Wisconsin. The chances of Democrats "ticket splitting" Presidential and Senate votes has to be less than .1 percent, so where is he getting these misleading calculations?

2. If you look at the raw numbers, Harris is outpolling Trump by 3 percent nationwide, and even with his methodology to prevent skew, she's up 1.5 percent. Yet Nate believes Trump has a 1 in 3 chance of winning the popular vote outright. There's NO way -- without a major earthquake that keeps Californians from voting or a massive power outage for New Yorkers -- that makes any sense. Trump has gotten destroyed twice in the popular vote the past two elections and there's no realistic scenario to prove it'll be different in 2024, so his simulations are throwing crap against the wall and hoping it sticks. (The White Sox "could" win the 2025 World Series!)

3. As was mentioned upthread, the fact that Harris' camp is spending money and time in Texas is because she's not only helping Colin Allred (ironic name!) but the latest polls show she may be even with Trump there. Her campaign is fully aware of the poll numbers they're getting independently of 538 and I get the feeling they must believe they've got a cushion in the Rust Belt states to be able to reach out and force the GOP to spend time and money it doesn't have to protect Trump's lead in Texas, not the other way around.

In a post-election analysis, I'm betting Silver will bemoan the fact that a record turnout will require yet another tweak to his methodology, which as of today has Trump winning 52 out of 100 times. He's counting on this being close and then being able to excuse himself out of why he was so wrong again.

 

“Democracy dies in…Nevermind.”

 

"Democracy dies in ... please don't hurt us."

 

Another subscription canceled.

These cowardly fucks at the NYT and Washington Post are saving me some money, at least.

 

"Democracy dies in the Deep State!" (Or Derp State, if you wish.)

 

While I live in a solid blue state, my congressional district is one of the most competitive in the country and the only one in NJ which is realistically in the balance. In addition to my mobile, we have a land line and one of us picks up basically every call when we are home and free, even if 95% are junk. But this whole election cycle, the only polling call which I received was about the Democratic senate primary before Tammy Murphy dropped out.

That’s why I am skeptical of the accuracy of polls.

 

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