President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

No, this is just a simulation based on 2020 percentages. No county has actually begun to count ballots. That's just what the spreadsheet spit out based on the raw data.

 

I think when the dust settles the deciding group won’t be young women, or Puerto Ricans, or bros, or Black men. It will be registered Republicans voting for Harris. It is not an insignificant number.

 

Correct. I can only guess at third-party/write-in ballots based on four years ago. It shouldn't be much different, unless Jill Stein pulls significantly bigger numbers than Jo Jorgensen's 62,000. (Stein got 7,000 write-in votes in 2016.)

 

If black turnout is indeed down, you’d expect it to show in the totals for counties like Chatham (Savannah), Richmond (Augusta), Bibb (Macon) and Muscogee (Columbus). It would also probably mean lower numbers from metro Atlanta counties like Clayton, DeKalb, Douglas, Henry and even Rockdale.

I don’t know that there are enough newly converted SUV moms in Alpharetta and Johns Creek to plug that hole. The Big Ten states might be a different story though.

 

But Sunday at MSG was a lovefest.

 

Who is favor of abolishing insurance for pre-existing condition? Do they really think this is a popular proposal? For any of us, any benefit in reduced monthly rates or other terms could be wiped out by one situation.
Is Mike Johnson so fortunate that he knows he'll never, ever need the protection he seeks to abolish?

 

One of the unknown variables is how in person early voting translates in predominantly minority counties like you mentioned. Are the numbers based on difficulty getting transportation to in person sites or just a preference to vote on Election Day? Right now, metro Atlanta counties are keeping pace but those other four are trailing the state average.

 

If it proves to be a significant number in a win, it would make the Harris campaign strategy look great. She’s courted the Liz Cheney/Nikki Haley voting block, and gotten some far left criticism for doing so.

I’ll be really interested to see how big the “country over party” voting block is.

 

So Biden insulted MAGAs when he was defending Puerto Rico and now they are all freaking out about it. "Basket of deplorables" 2.0 ... even though Hillary was right.

 

The gender gap in early battleground state voting is 10 points, with women leading men, 55-45.

We can’t know how they voted, of course. But I’d rather be on Team Harris with that early number.

And 50 million people have already voted overall. There were 160 million votes cast in 2020.

That would seem to indicate a high turnout election. And I’d also rather be on Team Harris in that case.

Usual caveat of who the fuck knows and this election may be totally different than any other election.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/29/gender-gap-early-voting-00186155

 

“Remember Biden? It’s a song about Biden.”

I hope he’s been out living his best life. Could have been out turning laps at Watkins Glen for all we know from press coverage the last 100 days.

 

It was a dumb thing for Hillary to say at the time and in that climate. But yeah, she was right.

Times have changed and this thing is not that thing, as much as they scream and cry. The only people who care are already voting for trump. And they don’t actually care. They just need to be angry all the time.

One other minor detail that they seem to miss: Biden isn’t on the ballot.