President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Demographics in Arizona have changed since I worked in Lake Havasau in 2004-2007. Very solidly red then, but would it be true to say it's purple now?

 

I think there are a few things here.

In general, Trump can get away with stuff his disciples can't. (As one pollster said last week, "Trump has very short coattails.")

Beyond that, Lake is shitty and mean in a way that really turns people off. When she launches a snide attack on TV against a local anchor that people in Arizona have known for 30 years, they don't like it.

She's also phony as hell. Her view on abortion has changed repeated in the last few months, pissing off both sides. And she likes to say people know her because she's been in their living rooms for 27 years... but that kind of ignores the fact that for 20 of those years she was a pot-smoking Buddhist and Obama donor who hung out with drag queens in gay bars.

She probably killed her political prospects in one quick move: a week or two out from the election for governor in 2022 she was speaking to a Republican group and asked "Are there any McCain Republicans in here? Get the hell out!" A lot of Republicans who would have held their nose and voted for her completely turned away from her then. It was an idiotic move for her.

 

Saw this fine quote from a Politico rehash of the MSG shit show ...

Longtime Trump adviser Peter Navarro is calling the comedian, Tony Hinchcliffe,
“the biggest, stupidest asshole that ever came down the comedy pike” after
he called Puerto Rico a “floating island of hot garbage” during his often-vulgar opening set.

LOL, it took years, but Navarro finally said something worthwhile.

 

Not really. Put a sane Republican in a statewide race and they probably kick ass.

In 2022 Kimberly Yee ran for treasurer as a Republican. She's a Trump supporter but generally seemed like an adult compared to the other GOP nominees in statewide races. While they all lost, Yee won her race by 200,000+ votes against a perfectly reasonable Democratic opponent.

It's probably a little less red than when you were here, but not by all that much. (And Havasu is red as fuck.)

 

I want to see the totals on Monday for Nevada. The voting outside the big two counties right now is carrying GOP. I think the trend is going to head blue and the margin on Monday will tell the tale.

1.2 of 1.4 million ballots came from Clark and Washoe in 2020. There's at least 500,000 still there and maybe 100,000 from the rest of the state

 

If she can’t take Nevada (and if she can’t there is no chance in AZ) then she must win Pennsylvania or else she can’t get to 270.

 

Yes, although if we are talking scenarios there's one where she gets there losing Nevada, Arizona and Penn but wins NC and Georgia

I'm not saying she won't lose Nevada -- Biden won it by 33,500 -- but the comparisons to a pandemic election or Trump's first ballot don't provide any real data to freak out at this point.

 

It means nothing toward the outcome, but for informational purposes: early voting in my county is up 24% over 2020, and 40% of all registered voters have voted.

 

Triumph vs. MAGA
https://www.rollingstone.com/tv-mov...p-supporters-msg-rally-daily-show-1235146962/

 

I lived in Flagstaff from 1998-2005, and I remember distinctly that Coconino County was the only one in the state to go blue in the 2004 election. But Flag is a crunchy hippie town so that makes a lot of sense.

 

Elon Musk has settled on a heck of a closing message, "Yes, electing Trump will crash the economy and balloon the deficit - but it will be worth it in the long run!"