President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

In an attempt to break the string of panic posts, a few things I'm seeing that give me confidence that a lot of stuff right now is literally garbage.

1. Turnout is crazy. The total percentage of ballots already banked in Georgia is 54 percent without a single Election Day vote. If it gets over 70 percent, the additional turnout will be coming from primarly Democratic-leaning counties where the majority of potential votes remain. I still think Trump hangs on but there are multiple variables that could lead to Harris winning. It'll only take as little as 1 percent shift in one of the metro Atlanta counties to flip the thing, especially if Harris beats Biden's numbers in Fulton and DeKalb, where turnout has matched rural GOP counties.

2. The pollsters have overshot their undercount of Trump voters in an effort to make up for 2016 and 2020. AtlasIntel, the most pro-Trump indpendent polling outfit, dropped his advantage a full point this week while almost all the other major pollsters have had Harris winning by 2+ percent all race, only to tweak their figures. And at no point have his totals crossed the 47 percent threshold. He's not winning the popular vote, not in any alternative universe.

3. Downballot polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all show strong support for Democratic candidates. We know Trump has very short coattails but are that many voters splitting ballots to cover in some states a 3 percent swing? Pennsylvania will be the key for Harris, where Casey's got at least a 3 point lead on McCormick. 538 has Trump up 0.2 percent but it's only gone GOP once in the past six elections, and again, AtlasIntel is the outlier. All the other major pollsters have Harris ahead.

4. Women are outvoting men 55-45 not only nationwide but in almost every swing state. According to YouGov, as many as 1 in 8 women are voting differently from their partners. I think the Dobbs decision has motivated a large group that was undercounted in the midterms and pollsters still aren't exactly sure what to make of them.

Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina and perhaps Arizona, but Harris wins the Rust Belt states and perhaps Nevada. That's where I'm sitting right now.

 

Totally not garbage thing to do

 

Snowflake.

 

I swear this guy wants to lose Michigan by the biggest margin ever

 

It's not "the totality of their politcal knowledge." It's the personification of the hate and the need to feel superior to someone that they're responding to.

 

Absolutely correct. People who feel (mostly wrongly) they've failed at life see Trump as the guy who'll punish the people they think succeeded instead of them.

 

So much for their plausible deniability about being about sending other people’s kids to war.