President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Silver can be a dick but his model relies on the polls. He can only account for hous effects and slants to a certain degree.

He's actually been pretty critical of the polls lately, saying it's becoming apparent that they're herding and afraid to publish outliers.

 

They have Kamala winning Iowa.

 

HOLY SHIT HARRIS LEADS IN IOWA!!!

Ann Seltzer, the queen of pollsters and who runs the most accurate poll in the country in the Des Moines Register, just published the final Iowa poll of the election cycle.

Harris leads.

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...ald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

This does not necessarily mean she will outright win Iowa, but it's an absolutely huge indicator for Harris to potentially win the election.

 

And if it is in play / does happen, it would cancel out if Trump takes Nevada

 

If Harris wins or even comes close in Iowa, she's sweeping the battlegrounds.

 

Take 'em both! Let's be greedy and pull the chain on this orange turd once and for all.

 

If Harris wins Iowa, this election won’t be close and she may pick off Texas or Florida, too.

 

Send the pigs to the slaughterhouse.

 

How bizarre is this? Has Harris even been to Iowa? Why would she?

 

Grab 'em by Des Moines

 

OK, after the initial excitement, I want to temper expectations.

Selzer is the gold standard of pollsters. But she is not infallible. She could have missed. Iowa may not represent the entire country - it certainly isn't diverse. Trump may still get a huge turnout of his demographics.

But what this says is that women - WHITE WOMEN - and independents are breaking hard for Harris in Iowa. Which means they're likely doing the same in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and probably throughout the country.

That is huge.