Gambling Thread

Happy Hour hoops! Princeton ML +114 vs Yale at Jadwin. Go Tigers!

 

You're a sicko. (Check out the CAA slate tomorrow!)

 

Hey, we got 15 miles separating Kent and Akron here in NE Ohio most nights --but not tonight! Last meeting sent Akron to the NCAA Tourament.

 

Bad decisions were made

 

Anybody seeing any good Super Bowl props? I always like to bet those instead of the game for this one. It's fun to track them all the way through, win or lose, so I also like the ones that are in play the whole game (anytime TDs, player totals, final margin, etc.). I got the game itself covered with futures bets on both teams a couple of weeks ago. I break even if the Chiefs win, and win a bit if the Eagles win.
Went over the whole props list tonight and it didn't seem like there were great odds on most of them. Lots of minus odds and positives odds only in the +100 to +200 range.
Here's what I came up with, though. I'm nickel and diming this — $5 and $10 bets on each one, probably a little around $125 total. It's for fun, so as long as I get in the ballpark of breaking even I'm OK with whatever happens:

Game
• Winning margin 1-6 points: Eagles +320, Chiefs +295 — Covering both sides of the board here, which averages out to about +100 odds for the bet.
• MVP: Mahomes +105, Barkley +250 — If the Chiefs win, Mahomes gets this so that's the hedge. If the Eagles win it'll be either Barkley or Hurts. I'm going with Barkley.
• Total passing touchdowns: O3.5 +130 — I'm on the fence on this one, but if it's a high-scoring game like it should be then this likely hits.

Touchdowns/Scoring
• First points are a field goal: +140 — A personal favorite at decent odds for this bet.
• First points/touchdown - Hurts +700, Barkley +500 — Hurts is +550 and Barkley +390 for the first touchdown, and they're +700 and +500 for the first points. So you can pick your poison here. I was going to go with first points for the better odds, but that conflicts with my field goal bet so I might go touchdown to stretch it out some.
• Dallas Goedert anytime TD +240 — I originally had Grant Calcaterra here (+1900) and then checked and saw he's caught one pass in three playoff games. Seemed like he'd been more active than that. Goedert's been pretty active in the playoffs, so I'll go with him instead.

Rushing/Receiving
• Saquon Barkley O21.5 rushing attempts +100 — Barkley has only gone under this number four times since Week 7, and two of those were blowout wins (one of them being last week). There's no way in hell this ends in a blowout, so he should hit this number easily.
• Kareem Hunt 10+ rush yards in each quarter +1000 — Hunt appears to be the lead back for the Chiefs, so if he's getting some volume I think he's got a good chance at this. At +1000 odds that's at least worth a dice roll, right?
• AJ Brown U49.5 receiving yards +210 — This feels like a coin flip because Brown has been so hot and cold down the stretch. I think he comes up under this time.
• Players with a rushing attempt U7.5 +145 — Maybe my favorite bet on the board. In non-blowouts the Eagles have been averaging three rushers per game (Hurts, Barkley and Gainwell) and the Chiefs three or four (Mahomes, Hunt, Pacheco and maybe an end-around to Worthy). If it's a close game, I'm not sure who that eighth rusher is, and we need to see at least one end-around from one of the teams just to get to seven, so give me the under.

Miscellaneous
• Total fourth down conversions O2.5 +115 — The Eagles are going for it if it's fourth and less than 2, and the Chiefs aren't shy about it either. Throw in what I'm thinking is a close game to get a conversion or two down the stretch, and I think this hits easily.
• Zack Baun O 0.5 sacks (+440) and most tackles (+175) — Baun hasn't had a sack since Week 13, but he's been all over the field in the playoffs and does have a couple of tackles for loss. I really like him to make some noise. Not enough to spend money on him as MVP (+10000), but enough to do it for these two bets.
• Punt downed inside the 5: +255 — A stupid bet, but it looks like they took my "field goal hits the upright" bet off the board this year, so we'll go with this one as my stupid fun kicking bet.
• Final play is a QB kneeldown: NO +145 — Another stupid bet that I really like that has decent odds. And that's what this is all about, right?

 

I love the longshot bets. There's never been a punt return for a TD in the Super Bowl, so it's worth a buck at +1300 at DraftKings. An octopus (same player scores a TD & the subsequent 2-pt conversion) is also +1300 at DraftKings. Hurts did that two years ago, so that seems sorta low. Can't find Scorigami odds, but I'll definitely put something small on that.

 

I'm seeing a Scorigami at +2000.
The minimum bet here for any of these is $5, so I'm out on that one no matter how much fun it is to root for.

 

Wait a minute. Something has never happened in 57 games. Yet it sounds like a good bet at 13:1?

There were six punt returns for TDs in the 2024 regular season consisting of 272 games. That averages once every 45.3 games. And they are paying 13:1.

The draftkings of the world love them some BYH.

 

I said a buck! For fun. One of those things that would be fun to say I "predicted" would hit. I'm not sitting here betting my daughter's college fund on it. (That's on Jalen Hurts & Saquan Barkley each rushing for 15+ yds each quarter, piece of cake at +13000!!!)

 

*Chiefs lead after 1Q, Eagles lead at half, Chiefs +4.5 (win or lose by 1-4) = +950

*Chiefs lead at half, Eagles win the game = +800


BEST BET:
Second half points > First half points = -125

Receiving:
DeVonta Smith O50.5 yards -110
Xavier Worthy: O5.5 receptions -109
Dallas Goedert O4.5 receptions -137
Xavier Worthy U56.5 yards -113
Travis Kelce U6.5 receptions -150
Saquon Barley O13.5 yards -117
Noah Grey U12.5 -116

Rushing:
Patrick Mahomes U30.5 yards -110
Patrick Mahomes O5.5 attempts -160 or O6.5 attempts +109 - put half on each
Xavier Worthy O6.5 yards -106 **TWO UNITS**
Saquon Barkley O21.5 attempts -122

Defense:
Cooper Dejean O5.5 tackles/assists -123
Darius Slay O4.5 tackles/assists -166

Kicking:
Total Punts U6.5 -140
Harrison Butker 3+ field goals +172. Small unit

Also:
1st Quarter Total Points U9.5 = -110
Chiefs First Turnover +100
Last Offensive Play: Kneel -200

If you THINK the Eagles win, take Eagles to win by 1-6: +255
If you THINK the Chiefs win: take Chiefs to win by 1-6: +245
Most first downs: Chiefs -115 (less explosive team)
Eagles O1.5 4th down conversions: +100
Game O2.5 4th down conversions: +120
Eagles O24.5 total points +105
Eagles to win from behind +175

Scoring:
Patrick Mahomes TD +300
Jalen Hurts TD -110
Savion Barkley TD -185.
Xavier Worthy TD +155


Also...

Kareem Hunt FIRST to 20 yards +450
Players to attempt a pass: Over 2.5 +180
"Eagles knock out Mahomes early": Eagles win + Mahomes under on pass attempts/completions/rushing yards/Chiefs Under 21.5 = +1500
Largest lead of the game, U13.5 = -110
Successful two-point conversion YES = +280
Successful octopus (Hurts likely gets it) = +1100
Will there be overtime? YES = +1000.

 

I love the over 2,5 players to throw a pass bet.

 

That's a fun one, just put a buck on it. #RiverboatBeej Also the books must hate me b/c I don't think I spent more than $3 on any bet. Ha ha suckas, should have found me 30 years ago when I was in college.