Gambling Thread

That’s my kinda morning. Well done.

 

Does anybody here know anything about the MAAC and what is going on with this line?



I googled “Marist basketball injuries” and only one player is listed as hurt for the Red Foxes. Nice player, averaging 10 and 4 a night but also hasn’t played since the end of February. Marist is on a four-game win streak.

EDIT: End of January

 

That does seem off. Marist lost on the road to Fairfield (6-10 in the league) so maybe that's part of it? Also, 12 of their 20 wins are by five points or less. Still, I would think the Foxes should be at least a small favorite. Line feels like it should be flipped.

 

Massey Ratings has SH -.5 Greg Peterson makes Marist a 2.5-point fave.

Marist is 20-5 but only 11-14 ATS. Lot of very close wins, but they are wins so if they are getting points …

 

That is an odd one. KenPom has Marist by one and has Sacred Heart as the most efficient offense in the league, but Sacred Heart (the Pioneers, in case it ever comes up) is 1-3 in the last four games and got swept in its last homestand two weeks ago by first-place Quinnipiac and middle-of-the-pack Siena. Pios also just lost to Saint Peter's, which is in danger of missing the MAAC tournament.

(Good Lord this is some sicko talk here )

 

Marist is 230 and Sacred Heart is 274 by KenPom. Marist's "luck" rating is 16th in the country - They have 12 wins by 5 points or less, and they're 12-3 in those games overall. It probably is close to a 50/50 game, and Sacred Heart is the home team.

I'm familiar with this type of profile because earlier in the year, URI was 9-0, and then 11-1, but all of their metrics stunk and they had four wins by 6 points or less. They're now 6-9 (nice) in A-10 play, and 17-10 overall. There are 360+ D-I basketball teams, so a couple of them will buck general probability and manage to win a bunch of close games the whole year. But Marist looks more like a .500 team that's managed to be lucky, like when you see "red" come up eight or nine times in a row at the roulette wheel.

 

I don’t think they are world beaters but when you carry an .800 winning percentage into the last day of February you’ve got something figured out relative to a league-average team. “Clutch” doesn’t exist but there’s something to be said for having muscle memory in tight games and succeeding.

This has to be the most consecutive posts about Marist basketball in the history of this or any other board.

 

Chiefs were very lucky until they weren’t.

 

This is like the end of Homer Badman, where Homer proclaims his innocence on public access TV and the pimply-faced kid marvels that they've gotten two phone calls after the segment. "Two calls? That's our best ever!"

I'm going to add to it here by noting Marist HC John Dunne is known as one of the best anonymous coaches in America. One of those grinders who either likes a decent quality of life or doesn't have the personality to win over ADs in an interview or good ol' boy boosters. But he made the NCAA Tournament and won the CIT at Saint Peter's, which barely has two nickels to rub together, and then moved within the league to Marist, which has six winning seasons this century. This is only his second winning season in seven years there, though he got them to the MAAC title game against Rick Pitino and Iona two years ago. All hail John Dunne!

 

Sacred Heart with a nice halftime lead

 

LOL. Vegas Always Knows. TM

Marist down 11 at the last media timeout.

 

I had a $5 no-risk reward to use on CBB and didn't even think to put it on the Pioneers. Maybe in a different league tomorrow, @Cosmo!