here's what's in store for ichiro...

[YankeeFan]

Tony Oliva, a HOF'er?

Boy the Blyleven ceremony really brought out the fanboi in you didn't it?

You know what I really missed this season and last? All of the Minnesota Twins commentary on the running baseball thread.

 

[shockey]

You didn't listen to Blyleven's speech today, then. Or Tony Perez' speech when he went in, either.

And if Ichiro's a lock, what's your argument for keeping Oliva out?

Ichiro: 10+ seasons, .327/.372/.796, 3045 TB
Oliva: 12 (full) seasons*, .304/.353/.830, 3002 TB

Ichiro has a big advantage in SBs (404-86) but Oliva hit 220 homers to 86 for Ichiro.

*Excluding 1972 when Oliva only played 10 games.

Ichiro is better at hitting singles -- which is hard to fault Oliva for, since Ichiro is better at hitting singles than almost anyone who ever played the game. Otherwise, Oliva's the better hitter, by a long shot. Ichiro makes up for that difference somewhat with stolen bases.

Otherwise, they're nearly identical. Rightfielders, top of the order hitters, free swingers, great hitters.

And I have spoken with lots of old school baseball people who are shocked he's not in already.

'old-school baseball people' will say a lot of guys who aren't in should be. i'm not knocking tony o (again, why i HATE these discussions). argure and/or twist the numbers however you'd like, but ichiro has more hof-quality seasons than tony, a higher ba and obp... ichiro is a a better 'singles' hitter than tony o was in terms of power/production. both awesome right-fielders. before his knee wows, tony o was a joy to watch going from first to third with those long, graceful strides... like i've repeated, i'm a fan. but he's a hovg guy, not an hof guy.

maybe the best way for me to explain why ichiro is a sure-fire guy while oliva hasn't yet and never will be is... ichiro, as a 'singles hitter,' has been an hof singles hitter. tony was a terrific, all-around hitter who, yes, had better power numbers than ichiro but that doesn't make them hof-calibre power numbers.

i mean, after 30 years, you actually think anyone can argue oliva's case into the hof? it's not happening, i believe rightfully so. you disagree. and the world goes 'round.

 

[shockey]

You didn't listen to Blyleven's speech today, then. Or Tony Perez' speech when he went in, either.

And I have spoken with lots of old school baseball people who are shocked he's not in already.

and there you have it. that's one very good reason, maybe even an explanation, why it remains the bbwa who votes for the hof, not former players. 'cause the former players grade waaaay too easily. they spend more time wondering why so-and-so ISN'T in the hall than arguing who has actually earned their way on their own merits.

voters should not vote based upon, 'well if the guy's in, why not that guy.' forget all other guys. look at a guy's career on its own merits. ichiro is an hof'er, imo, when evaluating his career numbers and season-by-season numbers. tony oliva? nope.

 

[Mark McGwire]

So, basically, they produced nearly identical offensive numbers, they were both outstanding fielders (Ichiro has the better arm, and, yes, the knee injuries slowed Oliva down) and one is a sure-fire HOFer and one is "not.even.close"?

And you're basing this on your personal "hof calibre seasons" standard? Just so I am clear.

I think the argument that's better is that Oliva wasn't QUITE good enough for QUITE long enough. But the universal acclaim for Ichiro surely makes Oliva's case look better -- especially in light of the pitching dominance when Oliva played.

 

[YankeeFan]

And I have spoken with lots of old school baseball people who are shocked he's not in already.

Solid argument.

It sounds like a statement Drip would make.

 

[CarltonBanks]

If you take Tony Oliva you have to take Al Oliver (18 seasons, career .303 hitter, .795 career ops, 2,700+ hits). Oliver, in my estimation, is the most underrated player in my lifetime.
Plus, he was involved in one of the most confusing trades in baseball history. Just read this transaction:
December 8, 1977: Al Oliver traded as part of a 4-team trade by the Pittsburgh Pirates with Nelson Norman to the Texas Rangers. The Atlanta Braves sent Willie Montanez to the New York Mets. The Texas Rangers sent Tommy Boggs, Adrian Devine and Eddie Miller to the Atlanta Braves. The Texas Rangers sent a player to be named later and Tom Grieve to the New York Mets. The Texas Rangers sent Bert Blyleven to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The New York Mets sent Jon Matlack to the Texas Rangers. The New York Mets sent John Milner to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Texas Rangers sent Ken Henderson (March 15, 1978) to the New York Mets to complete the trade.

 

[MrHavercamp]

So, basically, they produced nearly identical offensive numbers, they were both outstanding fielders (Ichiro has the better arm, and, yes, the knee injuries slowed Oliva down) and one is a sure-fire HOFer and one is "not.even.close"?

And you're basing this on your personal "hof calibre seasons" standard? Just so I am clear.

I think the argument that's better is that Oliva wasn't QUITE good enough for QUITE long enough. But the universal acclaim for Ichiro surely makes Oliva's case look better -- especially in light of the pitching dominance when Oliva played.

Seriously? Nearly identical offensive numbers? Come on. At least be honest.

Ichiro has over 400 more career hits and he's still playing. Oliva didn't get to 2,000 hits. Ichiro has both a higher batting average (.327 to .304) and a higher OBP (.372 to .353) even though he rarely walks. You've already noted the stolen base difference, which is huge. Ichiro isn't a power hitter like Oliva was, but Oliva, if you want him to be mentioned as a Hof guy, didn't come close to matching up with baseball's top home run and RBI men. Not then, not now.

As for defense, Ichiro has 10 Gold Gloves, great speed and a cannon for an arm. Oliva won how many GG's? That's right, none. Shockey's right about Oliva -- and I liked Tony (yes, I'm old enough to have seen him play on TV) -- never being in legitimate HoF conversations. There's a reason for that. I'm still not sure if you're kidding about this or if you're that much of a Twins fan. Oliva had six or so very strong seasons, but he's not the overall player Ichiro has been for 10 seasons.

BTW, I always thought BB should have been in (the wins, strikeouts, shutouts, curveball) and was glad to see him get there today.

 

[JonnyD]

I'm intrigued by the idea that you can be so bad at something that it actually works in your favor because you are taken out of the category of players who do that thing.

Ichiro's power numbers are so bad for a player at his position, he apparently gets a complete pass because he only gets compared to other "singles hitters."

Is Rey Ordonez going into the Hall? He shouldn't be compared to players who could actually hit, he should only be compared to pure defensive specialists.

Is the best pinch-runner specialist in the game going into the Hall? He shouldn't be compared to players who actually hit and play defense, just other pinch-runners.

(and yes, Ichiro still belongs in the HOF, I'm not saying he doesn't).

 

[shockey]

Okay, oliva backers: how many hof-calibre seasons did he have? a measure i often use when it comes to statistical analysis of overall final numbers is to measure how many seasons was a player 'great,' among the best in the game when he played.

by my measure, oliva had perhaps five, during which he had 100-plus rbi the only two times in his career. he also scored 100 runs or more only twice.

the guy who's been argued doesn't belong because he didn't have enough hof years is don mattingly, and i agree. mattingly's five best seasons were statistically superior to oliva's in ever category (yes, even when taking into account factor the yankee stadium factor), including five 100-plus rbi seasons, etc.


beyond their best five seasons, neither had anything close to a 'great season.' whatever their final production numbers are were through compiling.

again, neither is hof-worthy. both were tremendous hitters whose season-by-season excellence was curtailed, sadly, by injury. such is life.

putting the olivas/mattinglys into the hof opens the doors for a RUSH of similarly 'hovg' players in. is this really what we want? to lessen the standards?

 

[YankeeFan]

But, he played for the Twins. The Twins!

 

[Mark McGwire]

Total bases are nearly identical and Oliva's OPS is much better.

 

[shockey]

I'm intrigued by the idea that you can be so bad at something that it actually works in your favor because you are taken out of the category of players who do that thing.

who's done that? the comparisons are ridiculous. the hof is not just for 'power hitters.' plenty of non-power hitters are in. because, despite their lack of power, they were still marvelous hitters.

the hof isn't for ALL marvelous hitters/offensive threats, ultimately, it's for the creme de la creme of marvelous hitters/offensive threats. many a 'great' power hitter who could not do anything else are not in the hof.