Another 2012 Presidential Poll

Much as Americans might like Romney's business expertise in the White House, in the end the voters will recognize him as an empty suit and a hollow candidate. He comes across as a puppet to his more-devious party tacticians, and he obviously is out of touch with regular Americans in many diverse ways. That will cost him a lot in the trust factor, and well it should. He's a likable guy, but he's also a corporate tool. And nobody trusts many of our giant, faceless corporations anymore.

 

I feel pretty certain that, barring a major mishap, Obama will win the electoral vote.

It is possible Romney could win the popular vote. That would make two elections in a generation where the person who received the most votes for president was not elected. It is interesting to note that the Republican platform opposed any efforts to change the Electoral College.

If Obama wins the Electoral College vote but Romney wins more popular votes, that might be the spur to finally ditch the Electoral College. This would end the situation where candidates feel no need to campaign in California (a Democratic lock) and Texas (a Republican lock).

 

Obama will win, and I think the margin will be the ultimate test for their GOTV strategy for this election cycle. I'll be very interested to see if they are able to turn out voters with the extreme micro-targeting, fascinating (and also kinda creepy) data mining voter turnout operation they're working on. This is the one thing that intrigues me, and makes we wonder if they can actually pull a rabbit out of their hat in NC (not likely) and FL (more likely). I also think it could be the difference, if it works, in VA.

Otherwise, it's still all about Ohio, and Obama will win Ohio. Romney cannot do this without Ohio, and he's not gonna get it. Obama will also get WI and Iowa, and that's all she wrote even without the South Atlantic states.

 

I believe Romney will win. He is pulling away in Florida. He is starting to pull ahead in Colorado.

Right now Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin are truly a dead heat. He either needs Ohio or he needs Iowa and Wisconsin. He seems to have the momentum.

 

Ohio is not a dead heat, despite what the conservative media would try to make you believe...Obama has a 13 percent lead among those who have already voted.

It explains why the GOP is putting voter registration fraud billboards in minority neighborhoods. The cheating has already begun.

 

I think Obama has just barely done a good enough job of blaming the continuing economic mess on Bush to keep the job for four more years. Lots of people like me who voted enthusiastically for him last time will do it again and hope we're not royally fucking ourselves in the process.

But if things haven't turned around and we're buried in even more debt four years from now, the Democrats will be in for a long, long period of exile from La Casa Blanca.

 

Romney's lead in the popular vote may be accurate. But the electoral math still backs President Obama, and time is running out. The President may yet lose Virginia, but he should still win the election.

If the President is re-elected, I'm most interested in how the GOP reacts. Can it ever find a way to move forward with fiscally conservative ideas without conjoining it to an alienating (for many of us moderates) social agenda?

 

Obama has one too many in the W column for voters to make a change...

Economy in tentative recovery
Detroit still somehow in business
Ended Iraq War
Bin Laden gotten
Obamacare somehow passed
Spanked Mitt in FP debate

He's bowl eligible, folks. Can't fire.

 

My main two worries are what Israel and Iran might do over the next week and a half. If everything hits the fan, all bets and polling are off.

 

Gee, in SportsJournalists.com I expected a reflection of America. Any buyers for my swamp alligator farm in Arizona?

 

I don't think a lot of undecideds are going to break in the incumbents direction. Romney will win the popular vote, maybe by as much as three percentage points. Romney will win Floriday and Virginia but lose Ohio. That will likely secure the election for the president but I still think there's the possiblity that because so many resources have been dumped in to Ohio that a couple of second-tier swings don't surprise for Romney. Student turnout is without question going to be down and I think there will be a significant number of people who voted for Obama four years ago who simply won't vote. I don't think it's close to being in the win column for the President just yet.

 

I think Obama will win re-election.

His term has not been great and there are certainly many problems. It's enough to give some voters reason to make a change, like a coach changing quarterbacks.

Obama rode to the White House in 2008 on a platform of "hope and change", with no record to defend. Now Mitt Romney is trying the same thing, whereas Obama does a record to be examined.

But after four years of "I want him to fail" and other obstructionist tactics, the Republicans had a hard time identifying a candidate they could universally support. Romney is a businessman but really doesn't give a whit about social issues or foreign policy, so it seems. His positions are vague and changing and it's hard to know what one is going to get. He wants to appeal to hardline conservatives and moderates at the same time, and that's a tough line to walk.

Obama, as noted in a previous post, has a decent record of accomplishment and the thing he gets attacked most often for -- the poor economy --- can't be seen as entirely his fault.

In short, Romney just doesn't offer enough of a contrast or specifics on his plan to get enough voters to cross the aisle. So it's Obama, although closer than I would have guessed a few months ago.