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A woman's place is ... not on the trading desk

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by LongTimeListener, May 24, 2013.

  1. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    More than 90 percent of the people who trade the futures markets that PTJ made himself a billionaire trading in early in his career wipe out. ... they lose everything.

    Maybe he's just lucky. ... or perhaps there is a particular kind of smart that separates the people who make money from those who essentially step into the lion's den and hand over their money to people like PTJ.

    His BVI fund has produced an annualized return of 21 percent since he started it in 1986.

    He started with $300,000 in 1983 and has $12 billion under management today.

    His personal net worth is somewhere around $3.6 billion.

    I'll disagree with you and suggest that you do have to be particularly smart to compile a record like that. Even if he did it dishonestly, and there is absolutely no evidence of that, you'd still have to be pretty smart to grow money that aggressively and not get caught.
     
  2. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    I do love the attitude around here.

    "CEOs aren't any smarter, and don't work any harder than the rest of us."

    "It's not like you have to be particularly smart to make money in the markets."

    So, why aren't more people here working as a CEO, or a trader?

    You might not have to be "particularly smart" to make money in the markets, but it sure does help -- especially if you're employing complicated trading strategies that employ options, or if you're betting on the price change between two markets, like say unleaded gas and heating oil. It really helps if you're writing the computer program that will signal you when to trade.

    But, what it really takes is discipline, and humility. There are slogans like, "ride your winners, and cut your losses," or, "bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered." And there's some truth to them.

    Most of your trades will lose money. They key isn't even when to get into a trade, it's when to get out. If you like a trade at one price, and buy a contract -- whether it's a stock, or commodity, of financial instrument -- what do you do when it goes against you? Do you admit you were wrong, get out, and take the loss? Or, do you like it even more at the lower price, and buy more -- because it's a bargain! Your average price is now lower.

    Well, both answers might be right, but I've seen guys lose their homes employing the latter strategy.

    What about when the trade goes in your favor? When do you get out? Do you take a quick profit, or let it ride, hoping to make a killing?

    I once made four bucks a share on Intel. I don't think it had a single down day the month after I took my profit. My brother made the down payment on his first house off of the same trade.

    I saw a friend lose a million dollars in paper profits on a coffee futures trade.

    But, look, if you think it's easy, try it. It's never been easier to open a trading account, and to manage your own money. With contracts like the mini S&P, you can trade without a ton of money, and commissions are much lower than they used to be. Try it. Let us know how it works out.
     
  3. Uncle.Ruckus

    Uncle.Ruckus Guest

    "CEOs aren't any smarter, and don't work any harder than the rest of us."

    Spluh?
     
  4. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    "Spluh," meaning that's not an actual quote? Or it's terribly written? Or it's not the basic sentiment of many here?
     
  5. Uncle.Ruckus

    Uncle.Ruckus Guest

    I'm trying to figure out who said it or anything like it. I know I didn't.
     
  6. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    Well, if I was putting words in anyone's mouth, I apologize, but I do get the sense that quite a few people here are of that opinion.
     
  7. Riptide

    Riptide Well-Known Member

    Is it harder than writing one-column heds?
     
  8. Greenhorn

    Greenhorn Active Member

    My new favorite meme.

    It's Old Economy Steve!

    http://www.quickmeme.com/Old-Economy-Steven/popular/1/?upcoming
     
  9. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    One broker I trade with allows people to trade S&P e-minis with $500 intraday margin per contract. It attracts all the yahoos trying to day trade themselves to quick riches. 99.99 percent of them wipe out -- usually pretty quickly. You seriously have better odds making money at a Roulette wheel in Vegas.
     
  10. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    As a floor trader, trading NYSE index futures, you paid $2.00 a round turn (not a side) and scratch was either free, or $0.25. I can't remember.

    At those kinds of commissions, you can trade a lot. But, for most people, the commissions alone can cost a lot.

    I actually had one customer of mine buy a seat -- a NYFE seat was incredibly cheap at the time -- so she could trade at member rates (plus my commission for executing the trade).
     
  11. SoCalScribe

    SoCalScribe Member

    I say you don't have to be genius to make money because it's easy to see enormous macro trends and react accordingly. E.G., the housing market crash and subsequent revival, both of which I and a zillion other people saw coming and made some money on.

    Did "smart people" make more money off of such trends? Some of them, hell yeah. And some of them are in jail or lost everything. Relatedly, how did the London whale fare in the end?

    I don't get your post because if you posit that 90 percent lose everything ... don't you think many of that 90 percent are really smart? Ergo, intelligence isn't necessarily correlative.
     
  12. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I call bunk.

    Well, either that or you are one in a zillion people who can compete in a money game based on information. I've yet to meet one, so if you are that person, congrats. YOU are a genius.

    I actually do have skin in the game. Not sure if you really do. But I have learned a number of things -- some the really hard way. The most important is that in the business of trading, no individual can compete on the basis of information or knowledge. You are trying to compete with J.P. Morgan and UBS. ... and worse, John Paulson and Paul Tudor Jones, if you do that. You won't win. 99 percent of people who claim they have made money (and easily, nonetheless) by recognizing "macro trends" are full of shit.

    I post a lot on this board about markets and different factors I think are at work. It's easy to post and speculate and have opinions and spout off on a message board.

    For real, though, I don't gamble money based on my ability to interpret information better than others. I'm not that smart and few people are. I learned that lesson a long, long time ago. There are institutions out there with more inside knowledge of anything I could possibly trade than I will ever have.

    That is a surefire way to get your ass kicked. I have seen it over and over again.

    They only way to be successful trading (and success doesn't mean getting fabulously wealthy for most people; it means slow and steady, not PTJ profits) is to level the playing field. And that means trading as a simple up or down money game.

    Most people never learn that lesson, and others have trouble staying disciplined about it. But to the extent that I do a little trading, I trade price, not "macro trends" or information or knowledge, or whatever you want to call it. To the point that it often requires little knowledge about the actual instrument I am trading -- I only really want to know what it is, to gauge how thinly traded it might be, how volatile, particular characteristics of that market, etc.

    I have never traded a "macro trend." I'd lose money with 99 percent certainty. Anyone who says they do, loses money with pretty good certainty. It means you are smart enough to predict the future with good certainty. In financial markets, if that was easy, we'd never have people lose money -- get slaughtered on big one day swings.
     
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