NFL Week 15 thread

I can explain why you go for the TD without getting into win probability.

If you get the TD, it's at least 12-9.

If not, Cardinals have the ball on their own 1-yard line, which means they are either going to run the ball to get it away from the end zone, or have Lindley attempt a pass. And when you consider the Rams have a defense that has been playing very well, there's a good chance the defense can get either a safety (which means another possession for the Rams) or perhaps force a turnover, maybe even getting a TD off it.

If you really trust your defense, you'll trust that they can make something happen when your opponent is pinned deep in its own territory.

 

I would have kicked the FG. I won't argue against the probability numbers, but 19-15% is hardly an OMG WTF decision.

 

The wtf decision was thinking Hill would drive the field and score a td against that D. There best chance at a td was right there.

 

I can't remember a time when all six playoff spots (the seeds) were up for grabs this late in the season. Arizona could be anything from 1-6 still. Green Bay could win 2 games and lose to the Lions and drop to 5 with a 12-4 record. It will be a great final few weeks. You even have the shitty division where 3/4 teams are still in it.

I still think Green Bay and Seattle have by far the best chance to come out of the NFC, and think it will depend on who has the home game between the two.

 

The only somethings that can happen to help you here are a safety, or a fumble return for a touchdown. Otherwise you're left down two scores with three minutes left or, in the best-case scenario, five minutes left after a fumble. An impossible task. There is no way Lindley is throwing a pass in that situation, so take out the chance of an INT.

Also consider that the Rams are pretty bad on third down and fourth down, and the Arizona defense is one of the best in that situation. (I can't find the third-and-one numbers, which I think the league used to publish. Anyone have those?) The chance of a Shaun Hill-led offense converting that fourth down was way, way below 50 percent.

I'm not trying to be argumentative for the sake of it, I just like talking about the issue, but the more I look at it the more I think Fisher made the right choice. And the way it played out certainly validates him; if he left himself with a 15 percent chance by taking the field goal, I wonder what the percentage of victory was when they got to midfield with two timeouts at the two-minute warning. Higher than 15 percent, I'm guessing.

 

Just like when we talk about those rape statistics [/crossthread], do those win probabilities take into account the Rams' offense, vs, say Dallas?

 

That's the sketchy part about those win probabilities. They're just a survey of the league averages in down-and-distance situations, I believe. They don't say factor in the teams involved.

This came up after the Giants took the touchdown in the Super Bowl and gave the Patriots however many seconds to try to get down the field. I think the stats showed that the Patriots scoring a TD was a higher percentage than the Giants missing a 22-yard field goal, hence there was debate that Coughlin should have just let the clock run to the final play. But that didn't factor in that the Giants had a shaky kicker and a defense that had the Pats' number.

 

LTL, how does the way it played validate him?

There offence was terrible on that last drive, there was never a doubt they would get the ball back just like there was never a doubt that needing a yard for a td was their best chance to get a td.

If a Shawn Hill led offense is less than 50% to score there (which I agree with) what is the percentage that a Shaun Hill led team is scoring a td against that d in that situation? Less than 5%?

They score the td there they were 5 yards from fg range at the end.

 

I think the game plays out differently if the Rams are only looking at a field goal. I don't know if Arizona gets a first down, but they wouldn't just pound it into the line and concede the punt. (Maybe not anyway.)

The chance of scoring from the 50 in the final two minutes? Probably at least 15 percent, I'd guess, for the Rams. Maybe higher for another team.

But they did have a chance. I really think if they go for it there, they lose.

 

I guess my point in the end and throwing out the math, your best chance at a td with that offence was going for it there. althouhg less than 50 considerably higher than the alternative.

They probably lose either way.

 

There is a scenario where the Cowboys could go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. That would be delicious.

 

All I know is Jeff Fisher is a genius.