College Football 2016 Week 1 running thread

Best reply:

 

And USC, LSU and Oklahoma all lost.

 

Awesome.

 

I don't gamble and college football seems difficult to handicap on a per game basis. But if you just took the higher ranked team in the top 20 each week and gave the points (betting each game), would you be a net winner by Thanksgiving?

 

I'm on it. Let me go through yesterday. I could answer this each week.

Edit: 5-9 ATS in week 1 with two games left involving top 20 teams. In addition, the favorite is 1-1 ATS in games where both teams are Top 20.

 

Sept. 20, 2014. It's actually happened almost every year since 2007. Not last year of course.

 

The only way I think a player can reach an advantage is through betting with 40 good teams on opening week. Flat level for each. If that team doesn't cover in Week 1, then bet 2.2x on that team in Week 2. Once they win, you're done with them.

Yes, this is also known in gambling as the Martingale system and it's a road to failure in table games. In college football, however, no team has gone 0-10 or 0-11 or 0-12 ATS in at least a dozen years. That's about 1300 college football seasons. Every team covered at least once.

When a team fails to cover in a certain week, that colors the point spread for the following week. Unlike table games (except for blackjack where the odds constantly shift), odds and perceptions in college football shift after each week.

Example: Tennessee nearly lost on Thursday. If they have another weak performance in weeks 2 and 3, the line will be so low for Week 4 that they would almost have to cover.

So far in week 1 in my annual experiment, I am a savage 15-19. There's a note here: in games where I want to bet on both teams, I won't put any action. I'll double up on the team that loses the following week. (Some where I think the line is too high - Kansas State, Houston - I won't take the high quality team they're playing that week. I will lay it on Stanford and Oklahoma next week).

For those 19 teams that I'll double up on, 11 or 12 will probably cover next week.

Last year, I was down to 9 teams by Week 3. By Week 6, Michigan St and Mizzou hadn't yet covered. They did by week 7.

 

I hate people sometimes.

Family of late Nebraska P Sam Foltz victims of theft while away at Huskers game

 

Damn.

Damn damn.

Also why I never EVER say on social media or on the air when I'm about to take a vacation. Not only that, I schedule posts that make it seem like I'm in town while I'm gone.

 

"their sophomore QB, Gage Gubrud, did in his first career start is throw for 474 yards and 5 TDs -- and run 30 yards for the game-clinching TD."

Oregon is already recruiting him

 

LSU Janitor Les Miles Can’t Believe That He’s Still Being Mistaken For Football Coach After 11 Years | The Daily Crawfish

 

Great fans there in Nebraska.
Foltz's brother burglarized while at memorial