Running 2017 MLB regular season thread

If you want to argue that there is cause for concern about Lester, that's a reasonable argument to make. I largely disagree, for reasons stated, but it's a fair enough baseball argument.

But instead, your argument is that I'm a hypocrite for not being as concerned about Lester as I was about Arrieta last year, which you attribute to ... wait for it ... "trolling"!

This is a perfect example of why people at times can find you a little insufferable.

 

Okay, that one's fair.

 

No, I'm saying you are trolling for going on and on about Arrieta last year and this year while ignoring red flags that are just as blatant with Lester this year. You are running when the evidence goes against you, but suddenly a one-game sample size matters when it suits you. You use statistical evidence that is arbitrary, misleading or flat-out inaccurate and unlike me, you don't even have the integrity to admit what you are doing.

I didn't bring up Lester to say it was hypocrisy. I brought it up as evidence that the purpose of posting so much about Arrieta was to troll. The Cubs had many issues at that point, but you kept your focus primarily on just one. And I believe you know this, but you'll twist yourself into any rhetorical pretzel you can imagine rather than just admit you were trolling. (Yeah, yeah...bingo....Y'all might want to look in the mirror next time you post that one.)

That is just part of why people at times can find you a little bit insufferable.

 

Cubs scored more rubs last night than in their previous 9 games combined. But who cares when Arrieta amd Lester are providing this much chatter.

 

To be fair, Lester was a big part of the story last night, too. He had been pitching like crap. No matter how much Dickie wants to pass that off as bad luck, he was giving the team reasons for concern, so the strong outing is encouraging.

 

Was it "Free Rub" night at the ballpark? Damn, that's a promotion I could enjoy - more than a dirtiest car in the parking lot free car wash.

 

What "red flags"?

Last year, Jon Lester had a 2.44 ERA. His FIP was 3.41. In other words, pitching in front of an average major league defense, and having average major league luck, Lester's ERA would have been expected to have been about a run higher at 3.41, right around his career ERA of 3.46.

This year, Jon Lester has a 3.89 ERA. His FIP is 3.50, only 0.09 higher than last year. In other words, the surface advanced metric indicates that he is pretty much the same pitcher he was last season - and throughout his career.

So why is his ERA almost a run and a half higher than last year's so far? Well, last year, he surrendered a .256 batting average on balls in play ("BABIP"). His best before that in a full season was .286 for the 2011 Red Sox. He also left 84.9 percent of runners on base, which is absurdly high. This year, Lester's BABIP is .323, which is pretty high and likely to come down to the .290-300 range. His LOB% is 71.9.

He is likely the victim of some combination of poor luck and diminished defense behind him. How do we know this? Because his ground ball percentage is about exactly the same as last year. His HR/FB is about exactly the same as last year. His strikeout percentage has actually gone up a tick. His line drive percentage has gone down a tick. In other words, he is not giving up harder contact, and he is not missing more bats. He is actually walking 8.1 percent of batters as compared to 6.5 percent last year. And, I'll be damned, his FIP has gone up from 3.41 to 3.50, a small increase reflecting what appears to be a small issue.

In other words, Jon Lester is essentially the same pitcher he was last year. And he is the same pitcher he has been for the last decade-plus.

What red flags? Why am I for some reason obligated to express concern about Jon Lester? I'm not concerned about Jon Lester because the evidence gives me little reason to be concerned about Jon Lester.

 

This post totally makes me want to watch an Aaron Sorkin drama about the front office of a Major League Baseball team.

 

If I were your pitching coach, I'd remind you you don't have to use your best stuff in this AB. You're pitching to Mario Mendoza.

 

Schwarber is so frustrating. First PA, he falls behind 0-2 like he always does, then at least battled back to draw a walk. It was a really encouraging PA.

Next time, with the Cubs in the middle of a seven-run inning, he's swinging at pitches in Staten Island and strikes out.

 

But are you concerned? I don't want to see you being a hypocrite like you were with Arrieta and Lester.

 

Yes. I am fairly confident that one need not make a deep dive into the numbers to state that a .16x batting average ain't cutting it.