Muh Muh Muh My Corona (virus)

From my post a couple pages back:

Let’s repeat that a little louder for the people in the back:

After all, herd immunity to an infectious disease has never been achieved without a vaccine.​

 

I don't think Rick was implying that herd immunity was reached or anything. I think he was more pointing out that at a certain infection level - it looks to be around 25 percent - that you've probably "hit" as much as you're going to hit. Probably because at that point, you have things like aggressive lockdowns and overflowing hospitals, and you're pretty much forced to stay home, which means the virus can't spread further. And since you can catch Covid multiple times, it makes "herd immunity" a pipe dream.

 

There are two primary versions of COVID-19, differentiated by the chemical structure of the spike protein. The predominant version of COVID-19 is the evolved version, with the more effective spike protein. So there’s a chance you could get it twice, but it’s not a big chance and you’re not going to get the same versions over and over and over. We need a vaccine that works against both, which isn’t that hard (the flu vaccine works against multiple flu viruses), and we’ll get there.

 

Ireland says no on herd immunity

Ireland to impose 5km travel limit in strict new Covid lockdown

 

But doesn't that refute this post by Junkie?

It's not going to be "GONE" until it runs out of people to infect. Until then, it will lie dormant in places with mitigation efforts, only to resurface when those behaviors start to change --- such as in NY and Italy.

So if a permanent*** lockdown is the solution . . .

***until vaccine

 

Oh, and I forgot to mention earlier that there’s evidence that COVID-19 causes diabetes, in case you thought we should just unmask and go for herd immunity.

Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes

 

The entire concept of “herd immunity” was created for vaccines, so that’s true.

But many viruses have reached endemic equilibrium, which is the non-vaccine rough equivalent.

 

It’s uncanny how much mitigation efforts gain effectiveness when they are supplemented by removing 25% of the population from the susceptibility pool.

Like i said, the phrase “herd immunity” has become so loaded that it’s hard to have an accurate conversation about how the virus spreads.

“Herd immunity” as a strategy makes as much sense as letting criminals steal as much as they want under the theory that eventually there won’t be enough things left to steal and they’ll stop criming.

But the slowing effect on transmission rates as susceptible are converted to infected is an incontrovertible mathematical fact.


The Italy spike looks large because they are being compared to February and March when testing was barely being done, but in terms of actual infections it’s a tiny blip compared to then. New York even more so.

 

That’s severely overstated. We have tens of millions of confirmed cases worldwide and a handful of confirmed reinfection, usually in people whose immune systems are compromised in some way.

There’s no evidence yet of reinfection being a common enough phenomenon to have an impact on epidemic trajectory.

 

^ To me, those maps look an awful lot like three separate outbreaks in three separate areas of the country.

(and it should be noted that if you adjust for testing volume to estimate true infection levels, the first map would have way way higher lines than the other two. The first outbreak was still our largest, not our smallest, although it has been close at times).

The third map especially is doing the old Republican trick of using large, mostly empty swaths of land to make it look like an overwhelming Red Sea of people.

none of which is meant to imply that things are good right now. It’s been clear since early summer that we had failed to contain the virus and everyone was going to get their turn. There is very little public stomach for further restrictions, and more importantly private compliance is slipping and people are having more in-home gatherings. I expect thanksgiving and Christmas to cause a notable spike, which will be multiplied on top of the current spike at the rare things are going.