President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Simple: They think they're white.

 

If you want to know how far off polling is, take a look at Spanberger/Freitas in Virginia.

 

If you need some tranquility to watch as a break from the news.

 

I'm going to be that guy: Bunch of people in this thread have no idea what they're looking at or talking about.

For one, 538 doesn't do polling. It analyzes the polls that are already out there against historical trends and evidence. A 70% chance to win a state does not mean that it's a guarantee or solid blue. It's simply saying a candidate has an edge there IF THE POLLS ARE RIGHT. As we're seeing, polling has become less accurate over the years.

Two, election observers have been beating this drum for weeks but no one has apparently been listening: Mail-in ballots will tilt heavily toward Democrats. In-person voting will lean heavily towards Republicans. Many states are counting in-person votes first, and then going to count their troves of mail-in ballots. Parts of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will not count mail-in ballots until Wednesday. Of course results are going to look skewed now.

Three, just because a state is red or blue now does not mean it will stay that way. Counties are not equal. Take Virginia, which had a freak out moment on this thread. The most populous, suburban counties always end up being counted last because there are so many votes. They're also heavily Democratic.

I realize a lot is at stake, but some of you need to take a step back and get a better grasp of what you're looking at.

 

We've heard for a long time now that results in some states - Pennsylvania, especially - most likely won't be ready tonight. So I'm holding on to that, and have to keep reminding myself of that. But I guess I'm not as surprised as I was four years ago.

However, we now have an 18-month-old daughter, and I can look over at her and while she sleeps and am comforted by that.

EDIT: @SoloFlyer said it a lot better than me. Gone are the days where we would possibly get this for first edition.

 

Thank you. Much-needed post.

 

Solo, I hear you.

 

The belief that mail in votes that will tilt a close election to Biden in the days after the election will actually be counted given the ratfuckery the GOP will pull off is absurd.

 

The logic, as I understand it:

Economy. And the virus wasn't his fault, so the lapse in the economy wasn't his fault, either. They'll forgive the nastiness and incompetency for a strong economy and the policies that they think lead to that, like tax cuts and deregulation.

 

Correct. Arizona looks good. NC was still quite close last I saw.

Maddow just had the expected completion of voting on Wi, Pa, and Mich, and they all say somewhere between tomorrow and Friday. Also worth noting that none of those states are in Republican control. No more Scott Walker.

So breathe. Drink, but keep breathing.

 

Or, racist Americans vote far more than the people who are targeted by racism. It’s pretty simple.