2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Yes, but it'll get winds substantially lower than the 115 mph in the eye wall. However, I'd be more concerned with tidal surge in the Keys right now.

The next advisory is due at 2 p.m. ET.

 

That was my thinking too. Any storm surge is bad for the Keys.

 

At least going by the cone, it should pass far enough west of the Key to not do too much major damage. They will undoubtedly get some high water and wind, but the worst of it should be far enough away unless it turns.

 

The 5 p.m. ET forecast cone now takes Ian all the way across Florida, entering between Fort Myers and Sarasota, exiting somewhere around Palm Coast and re-entering near Saint Marys, Ga. Which now puts the entire I-4 corridor in play. What a mess this might be.

Here's the discussion:

Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional
wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast
is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a
ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian
remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This
solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast,
and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.

 

Football schedules continue to shift.
My Saturday radio game is now a Thursday contest.
My Friday night press box PA gig is still on, but many games in our area are being moved to Thursday as well.

 

Key West appears to be doing well.

 

Otherwise known as Tuesday in Key West.

 

The view from the Harbor cam looks wet and windy, but not much as far as surf.

Key West Harbor Webcam - Cruise Ship and Sunset Web Cam in the Florida Keys

 

There's a few diehards at Sloppy Joe's. And the music plays on...

Web Cams: Streaming Bar Cam

 

Even if Ian comes in south of Tampa I’m afraid the 5-10 foot surge will come right up through Tampa Bay and that water has nowhere to go

 

For those who live in hurricane country - when one evacuates from an approaching hurricane - where do you go? How far away? Do people in the Gulf have a network of people/friends who welcome them when one of these things happens? Kind of like a "home and home" series?