President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

I tell people media these days is beholden to "dynamic stories." No longer is it X happens, media reports X happens. It's "X happens, what will Y be?. And how will it lead to Z?." Things are spun forward so much, I don't know if we ever get to the "Why X happened" part any more.

 

where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain and so forth

 

Rule #1 when some Twitterer trots out statistics ... Check into the veracity of the damn statistics.

 

"Why" is the hardest of the 5Ws to research, and in an era of click bait stories from 30,000 feet above, nobody cares to actually delve into the numbers.

A great example right now are political polls. Five Thirty Eight and Politico release information that Republicans are trending higher and suddenly all the stories are "Red tsunami on Election night!" even though that might not be anywhere close to the narrative.

If you actually look at the 538 Senate projections, almost 75 percent of the computer simulations result in no more than 52-48 in favor of the Democrats and 52-48 in favor of the GOP. Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada are the three key races. Whomever wins two of those three has the inside track on controlling the Senate. And Nate Silver admits he's baked in the X factor that undercounts GOP voters, which may or may not be accurate.

The Warnock-Walker race in Georgia is particularly more complicated than "Walker's pulling ahead." There's a third party choice that's influencing the results. Right now, Silver predicts a 1 in 3 chance of a runoff, which counts for close to half of Walker's projected wins. But in simulations where one or the other avoids a runoff, Warnock is favored.

The real why in Georgia is in suburban white women, who voted for Biden but are trending back GOP in 2022. And there's a significant number of Black men who dislike Abrams. But you wouldn't see that in most opinion pieces because that requires doing research.

 

But he’s got a blue check mark ✅

 

I've sent e-mails to 538 asking to explain the continuing use of "right track, wrong track" polling. A simple follow up with A) Dems aren't doing enough, B) Rs aren't doing enough C) Dems are doing too much D) Rs are doing too much and E) I'm satisfied, wouldn't require that much extra effort.

 

Family values. Good thing the Bible thumpers ignore the adultery stuff.

 

When's the next GQP obituary practice?

 

absolutely

Fact check: Is violent crime rate in Oklahoma higher than New York?

FBI & CDC Stats Confirm Oklahoma Violent Crime Rate Higher Than New York & California

In just violent crime for 2020 the FBI shows Oklahoma's rate sits at 458.6 violent crimes per every 100,000 Oklahomans. That same year, California's violent crime rate was 442 per 100,000 and New York's was 363.8 per 100,000. Those numbers held true in 2018. In 2019, California did have more violent crime than Oklahoma. It is important to note that Oklahoma had a dramatic dip in violent crime in 2019 that has since spiked.

Per the FBI's definition, violent crime includes homicides, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. In terms of homicide rates Oklahoma once again takes the top spot each of those three years. In 2018, Oklahoma's homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000, California's was 4.4, and New York's 2.8; for 2019 Oklahoma saw 6.9 homicides per 100,000, California saw 4.2, and New York saw 2.9. Lastly, in 2020 Oklahoma saw 7.4 homicides per 100,000, California's was 5.5 and New York's 4.17 per 100,000.

New York City Is a Lot Safer Than Small-Town America

 

But da gaz prizes

 

Phasing out Social Security once the boomers are done with it would be the most boomer thing ever.