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The Economy

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by TigerVols, May 14, 2020.

  1. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    There was a time ... many, many, many, many moons ago ... when your humble correspondent was sort of into really good wine. Couldn't afford jack, but I liked to read about it, etc. I even subscribed to Wine Spectator (and believe me, I was very much the spectator). And on a fancy dinner date with my wife, I overhead some dude ordering a $150 (in today's dollars) glass of a particular first growth Bordeaux. Haughtily I thought to myself, "What a dumbass ... the only reason they're selling that by the glass is it was a terrible vintage."

    And then I tipped back a glass of the cheap-o Australian Chardonnay we'd bought ... with a credit card ... that was right at its limit ... that we both would lay awake at night wondering how we were going to pay.
     
  2. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    My wife and I went to a local taproom last night. We had two beers each. The check came, and it was $28. I cringed.
     
  3. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    Sounds like my days of picking up Cigar Aficionado every month. We're talking late 90s.
    I was given an entire box of Cohiba Esplendidos by a friend of my then father-in-law's who ran a marina that may or may not have been a favorite of some less than legal activities. The box was most likely on a shelf in Havana the day before. I still have the box and every single band all these years later.
     
  4. micropolitan guy

    micropolitan guy Well-Known Member

    Wow. That's a 30-pack of Banquet or PBR.
     
    Driftwood likes this.
  5. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    Friend of mine attended the government cheese concert at the Beacon in New York City last night and posted a picture of his double makers mark and Coke, which cost him 38 bucks
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2023
  6. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    I splurged on a $14 six pack of the local Good People Brewing's Coffee Oatmeal Stout. I'd had it once and hadn't seen it available in a long time and Publix had it on an end cap. Damn good beer.

    I like the brewpub stuff, but paying $8 a beer isn't something I'm going to do on the regular.
     
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Seven stocks (the magnificent seven) drove 117.8 percent of the S&P 500's total returns this year. In another words, take out those seven stocks and the rest of the S&P 500 had a negative return. One of those stocks, Tesla, spiked more than 100 percent this year. That despite the fact that actual company's earnings (which have nothing to do with the returns in the manipulated economic environment we've all settled for) struggled this year, dropping more than 35 percent in the third quarter, to where it was 2 years ago. Tesla kept cutting prices to boost deliveries, but the company now has anemic margins. In an environment that wasn't being artificially driven by central bank liquidity flows (and expectations of them), that's a company that would be being punished.

    I'd say:
    1) There is nothing healthy about HOW those returns you posted happened. Markets are not being driven by anything fundamental, they are being driven by expectations of how much liquidity a price fixing czar (the Federal Reserve) is expected to pour back in to keep a multi-decade debt bomb from exploding. Those expectations probably aren't wrong, people have been conditioned by them for the last decade and a half to expect them to double down and dig a deeper hole rather than accept the consequences of what they have already done. But it's why the behavior behind 2023's returns looks so lopsided and speculative in nature, including a survival of the unfittest situation like Tesla. The broader economy -- including the inflation genie they unleashed and the massive wealth inequality that has a large swath of the country disaffected -- suffers because of precisely what is driving those otherwise irrational returns.
    2) None of that has anything to do with Republicans and Democrats.
    3) Index investing itself has now become a ticking time bomb because of the situation I am describing. The rationale for it once was the broad diversification you got -- on a risk-reward basis, it made a lot of sense. But you lose that benefit when you have a handful of stocks that on a cap-weighted basis are acting bubbly and driving the entire ship based on people who literally are putting their thumbs on the scales of finance. It may continue to pay off for people (not when we eventually have a credit event that is greater than what happened in 2008), but the vast majority of people who buy those indexes are taking on way more beta risk than they understand.
     
  8. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    JFC. Is there any kind of good economic news? No matter comes out, somebody has to crap on it.
    I know - because my wife told me - our net worth increased decently from Dec. 31, 2022 to Dec. 31, 2023. I'm sure there is something negative about that. I just don't know what it is because I don't obsess over money.
     
    wicked and Slacker like this.
  9. exmediahack

    exmediahack Well-Known Member

    I check my retirement accounts every 3-4 weeks and it turned out strong in the last three months with the positive correction after the mess of 2022.

    The earlier post on how inheritance is different is fascinating. For those of us with a parent who may have lived in a major metro (with the real estate value increase) could see an unexpected windfall — very different than the past.

    That’s my goal is to have two properties to give to each kid — my mom’s place and also mine. Hoping to instill this for future generations. Take what came to you and also add your own to the next round.
     
    wicked, Driftwood and maumann like this.
  10. three_bags_full

    three_bags_full Well-Known Member

    No disrespect intended here, but you've been saying the same shit for 10 years.
     
    Slacker, 2muchcoffeeman and Driftwood like this.
  11. maumann

    maumann Well-Known Member

    There are a number of exceptions, but there are two times when the price of an investment is critical: the moment you buy it and the moment you sell it. Otherwise, it can go left, right, up or down and you don't actually need to care.

    "On paper," I'm worth X, and X is larger at the end of 2023 than it was in 2022, but about the same as it was in 2020. However, I paid more for stuff in 2023 than in 2022, so I'm not sure whether I'm ahead or not.

    Unless I sell tomorow (or when the stock market or real estate office is open) -- which would be ridiculous since I'd rather keep trying to beat inflation for the time being -- I only have a rough idea of at what value my assets are worth. Of course, the IRS and the County Tax Commissioner care, because they try to assess me based on their best guess of what I'm receiving in interest, dividends, stock sales and perceived home value.

    If I tracked Zillow or the 401(k) every day, I'd be wasting more time than I have left. I'd rather worry about other things I can't control, like sports teams and my wife.
     
  12. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    I used to track my Tribune Company pension estimate regularly in the Zell era and beyond when I was afraid those vultures would do something to it.

    But since September, the payouts come every month.
     
    Driftwood likes this.
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