The Economy

One story I saw the other day (not the NY Times story, but can't remember where) said they have only 100 of those enforcers on the buses -- citywide.

In any case. ...

M.T.A. Says No More Free Bus Rides for Fare Evaders

 

We will have government deficit this year that will be between $1.8 and $2 trillion, maybe more than $2 trillion -- piled on top of the already existing debt. Our government at all levels has exploded in size. It now accounts for 50 percent of GDP. GDP isn't the measure of the "economy" the way people understand it.

Frankly, we should be seeing GDP numbers much better than this with the amount of government spending (and debt behind it) we have embarked on the last several years. If you are going to live a fantasy, you should be doing China type GDP numbers from a decade ago -- 9, 10 percent growth.

Instead, take away the growth of our government over the last few years. ... and everything else has been floundering. Whole swaths of the rest of the economy have been contracting, actually.

That isn't my "point of view" like I am making stuff up or rooting like a sports fan, FWIW.

 

The American consumer that everyone thinks is resilient has been a function of helicopter-dropped stimulus over the last several years. That lifted things (including prices), but it has filtered through, and we aren't actually producing anything. We're just creating government spending that masquerades as something positive "economically," and that has slowed down dramatically, too. Without the "stimulus" . ... On the lower end. ... it's over. Unless we do more of it, print more money like crazy and run up a ton more of government debt and just stuff it into people's pockets, it's over. ... and our ability to keep doing that is not eternal even if they try (which they will).

This was yesterday. ... It's been the story of retail the last few months. Home Depot on the higher end (people with home equity), dollar stores on the lower end.

Dollar General stock tanks 32% after outlook cut spurred by 'cash-strapped' customer

"It appears to us very strongly that ... this lower-end consumer continues to be very much financially strapped, especially as it relates to her ability to feed her families and support her families," CEO Todd Vasos told analysts during the company's earnings call on Thursday morning.