2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

11 a.m. update made a significant bump to the south (whew!). The two previous tracks had it going right between Tampa and St. Pete and just a hair under Orlando.
WRT the biggest population centers, this is much better.

 

I terrible want to make a joke about Milton avoiding Clearwater because of the Scientologists but can't come up with anything clever.
So, I'll just say Tom Cruise.

 

Terrible for Bradenton and Sarasota but way better for St. Pete and Tampa. This storm is compact, so the highest hurricane winds are going to be a in 10-15 mile radius. That's still pretty nasty for beach erosion and storm surge, but it's possible the RV park won't be in the eye wall. I just checked my Progressive policy and upped the contents to $3,000 from $1,000, just in case.

The park has done a tremendous job of clearing debris from Helene but it's out next to Bayshore Road, which is only 50 feet from my trailer. So if the canal floods, it's all going to wash back into the park.

 

From the latest discussion:

The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance trend continues.

(Good for us, worse for North Port, Fort Myers and Naples. Also, worse for my parents in Melbourne.)

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days, rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a notable increase in shear.

(Some models are projecting Cat 5 status as Milton approaches Florida but rapid de-intensification just as it gets closer to shore. Boy, the timing on will be huge.)

 

No landfalling hurricane is ideal, and the entire coast from St. Pete to Naples is pretty built up. But the new track takes it over more sparsely populated areas than before once it gets inland. Hopefully it puts the Space Coast on the clean side.

 

The worst hurricane damage in Wellington since I’ve owned a home here (2004) was from Wilma in 2005, which came across from the west coast. I think it made landfall as a 3 and was still a 2 when it went through Palm Beach County. I had gutters and fencing down but there was a ton of roofs damaged around town. So I don’t take a hurricane coming from the west rather than the east lightly. At this point, though, I’m just preparing the house for tropical storm winds.

 

Wilma's eye passed over my house in Weston. We were told the east end was going to be the worst, but it was the second-half west end that knocked the satellite dish off its mountings. Smartest thing I did was call DirecTV immediately and arrange an install. They were there in four days. Had I waited until the end of the day to call, the wait would have been a month.

And that was a damn Oct. 24 storm.

I had $4,400 in damage to my house built in 1996. Friend of mine whose house was built in the late 80s (pre-Andrew building codes) had $30,000 in damage. Do NOT buy a house in South Florida built before 1993.

 

A couple more storms like this and there may not be many left, sadly enough.

 

FTFY: Do NOT buy a house in South Florida.

It's time to leave. I'll take snow over this.

 

I love my house in Wellington but I’ve been actively looking for some time and as soon as I find the right house in the Minneapolis area, I’m moving home.

 

Well, I'm kind of running out of ideas. Seeing as until about two weeks ago our dream retirement destination was . . . the East Tennessee/Western North Carolina mountains.