2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

OK. 7:30 p.m. ET update:

Personal news for @Liut and my other friends on the board: Mom, Dad, Scott, Lisa, Greg on their way to Savannah. Left at 5 p.m. I-95 traffic is heavy but moving.

According to satellite imagery, Hurricane Milton has wobbled south and east of the prediction models which now takes the projected landfall back to the south end of Sarasota, and forward motion has slowed again. For now, the entire Bay Area is on the "clean" side of the storm but still looking at Cat 3 wind gusts in the middle of the night early Thursday morning. That also may keep Orlando from catching a Cat 1 eye wall.

For being such a powerful Cat 5 storm, packing 165 mph at its center, Milton's hurricane strength winds only extend about 30 miles. However, as the wind shear starts to tear at it as it tries to make landfall, Milton will get less powerful but the wind field will grow larger. Think of an ice skater in a spin. Arms up, speeds up. Arms down, speeds down. Right now Milton is probably as nasty as it'll get.

Milton could wobble back north again by the 11 p.m. discussion, because hurricanes are unpredictable. But the more it dawdles on an eastward track before turning northeast, the less chance there is of a direct hit on St. Pete/Tampa, and the storm surge, currently forecast at 10-15 feet, may not reach those numbers. However, that means the greater the risk for North Port, Port Charlotte and Fort Myers Beach. Or even Naples.

 

As of an hour ago, the cone of uncertainty had slipped so far south that several of my coworkers' residences had slipped outside the cone. As of right now, the eye is projected to stay south of Orlando. I'm still not feeling great about this, but I am feeling a bit better.

I'd still like the eye to pass just north of Lake Okeechobee, because that would wreck the Army Corps of Engineers' precious "flood control" dikes that are making a mess of the Everglades' water flow.

 

If I'm in Vamo, Osprey, Nakomis or Venice, I'm getting worried. If this thing stays on that path, it'll mess those places up but miss the major population centers. Not that I want Myakka State Park damaged but there's a lot of empty grazing land out east of there, rather than occupied dwellings.

And that doesn't mean our park is in the clear but we may avoid a direct hit, which may give our fifth wheel a fighting chance.

 

I lived in NM for 5 years. I highly recommend against it.

 

That's an awesome comparison, especially since I know both places. Will someone think of the jams and jellies! (Compared to ... dates?)

I just read where Smucker's has discontinued Knott's Berry Farm products. I'll just try to get along somehow.

 

The bitch of it is, below Tampa isn’t exactly empty. Figure that stretch from Bradenton down to Naples holds maybe a tick under 2.5 million people, depending how far inland you want to define things.

 

And, yes, the Waffle Houses are closed.